Fantasy movie League, The Merc with the Mouth is Back!


We’re deep into May, graduations are taking place, the days are warmer and we’re starting to see the big blockbusters of summer lining up. After a couple quieter weeks following the release of Avengers: Infinity War, we have our next big summer tentpole in Deadpool 2, which opens tomorrow (or tonight if we’re being technical).

But first, let’s consider last week. I liked the odds of A Quiet Place being a sneaky value, and it was close. But Ready Player One earned that honor. However, that wasn’t a factor in the Perfect Cineplex, which was Breaking In x7 and A Quiet Place, seizing on the low price and strong Box Office for Breaking In. I went Avengers and A Quiet Place x7 and was more than $20 million off. It happens.

This week, there are six new entries in the game. That’s because we’re seeing the return of daily scoring for Deadpool 2, which accounts for three new options, in addition to three other new movies. Let’s consider our options.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release, and the surefire No. 1 film for the week is Deadpool 2, the follow up to the 2016 release that smashed records. This one is still rated R, so don’t expect it to pull Avengers money opening weekend (as the R-rating limits the viewing pool), but it should easily top $100 million and be a strong performer. It’s also a hit with critics, pulling in an 85 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, not that it’s totally needed for Box Office. Box Office Pro forecast $133 million opening weekend, while Box Office Report is even more bullish at $141 million. Fantasy Movie League has it broken into daily scoring, with those three days being the highest cost in the game this weekend. Friday is the most at $501 FML Bucks, with Saturday at $452 FML Bucks and Sunday at $337 FML Bucks. And that aligns with projections of $56.8 million Friday (which includes tonight’s screenings), $45.3 million Saturday and $35 million Sunday. I haven’t hit right on any daily scoring so far this year. I went big on Saturday for Black Panther, and Sunday was the play. I bet on Friday-Sunday for Avengers, and Saturday was the play. Something here is the right anchor, but sometimes it’s hard to forecast.
The next biggest release is Book Club, a romantic comedy of a different sort starring Jane Fonda, Candace Bergen, Diane Keaton and Mary Steenburgen. It’s definitely counter-programming, centering on four friends who look to spark their own love lives after reading Fifty Shades of Grey. It boasts just a 61 percent critical score, but I don’t know if that will have a big impact on the potential audience. The film is modestly priced at $98 FML Bucks, but projected at just $10.3 million by Fantasy Movie League. It comes into a fairly crowded marketplace after two weeks of primarily female-aimed films were released. Box Office Pro projects $11.2 million, while Box Office Report is even more bullish at $13.8 million. That could give it some sneaky value.
The next new wide release is Show Dogs, a hybrid CGI and live-action film fronted by Will Arnett. It looks dreadful, but doesn’t yet have a critical score. I don’t think that score will be high, but I don’t know that it matters. This film is planted squarely in the family demographic as a bit of counter-programming. Oddly, the film costs $99 FML Bucks (more than Book Club) while being projected at $7.9 million by Fantasy Movie League. It’s projected at $8.2 million from Box Office Pro and just $6.5 million from Box Office Report. That makes it a stay away for me.
The final new entry is Pope Francis: A Man of His Word, which is a limited release documentary. The film boasts an incredible 87 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and will likely draw strong audiences wherever it has screens. It costs just $25 FML Bucks and is projected at $2.3 million. Neither Box Office Pro or Box Office Report offer a projection, so it’s really just a low-end filler option.

The Search For The Best Value:

It’s the Avengers’ world, and we’re just living in it. After three weeks at the top, Infinity War is sure to be second place this weekend. But at PG-13, it still has the ability to attract a wider audience than Deadpool 2. The film carries a price tag of $280 FML Bucks, and is projected at $30.8 million. However, Box Office Pro projects just $27 million, while Box Office Report is at just $30 million.

Another intriguing option is Breaking In, which was a strong performer last week. It costs just $73 FML Bucks and was just shy of Best Value last weekend. It’s projected at $7.2 million by Fantasy Movie League, $6.8 million for Box Office Pro and $7.5 million for Box Office Report. Similarly, last week’s other new release Life of the Party is just $76 FML Bucks, relatively similar, and projected slightly higher everywhere, with numbers between $7.3 and $8.4 million. Either could be a good value.

This Week’s Lineup:

I like the potential value this week in Life of the Party given what I’m seeing. And I also think Deadpool 2 will likely be stronger on Friday than the rest of the weekend, so I’m giving it a go.

Deadpool 2 Friday
Life of the Party x6
Pope Francis: A Man of His Word

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