Fantasy Movie League — Solo brings his story to the Box Office


We’ve reached Memorial Day Weekend, the unofficial start of summer. School is out (for most), the days are warm (for most) and barbecues are plentiful. It’s also a time for big tent poles at the Box Office, which is true of 2018 as well with the release of Solo: A Star Wars Story. The production was fraught, and this is the first of the new Star Wars films to jump out of December into summer, so it’s fair to have some questions. But it’s still a Star Wars movie, so it’ll be huge. More on that in a minute.

Last week we all knew Deadpool 2, which was in daily scoring, would be the top of the Box Office heap, but the question was what would be the Best Value. I bet on counter-programming and went with a lady — specifically Melissa McCarthy and Life of the Party. And that one did OK. But the real stars of the show were the ladies of Book Club, which took the Best Value and led the way, alongside a screen of Deadpool 2, to the top of the Fantasy Movie League heap. So better luck to me this week.

Solo: A Star Wars Story isn’t just the biggest movie of the week, it’s the biggest question. In terms of the game, it’s how to play it. Solo is in daily scoring, and since it’s a holiday weekend, that means four days to chose from. Let’s dive in.

New at the Box Office:

There is but one new movie this week, and it accounts for four new entries in this week’s game. (The fifth “new” entry is just Deadpool 2 as one whole unit.) Solo: A Star Wars Story has been hotly anticpated. The production was troubled, leading to the original directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller leaving mid-production and being replaced by Ron Howard. That’s never good, and it’s fair to wonder what that will mean for the finished film. The movie boasts a 71 percent Critical Score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s not great, but likely not nearly enough to keep people away from the film. Box Office estimates are solid, but not incredible. Box Office Report was more bullish with $146 million, while Box Office Pro sees it at $133 million for the four-day run.

Fantasy Movie League has it in daily scoring. Friday is the most costly at $587 FML Bucks, with Saturday at $371, Sunday at $334 and Monday at $271. None of the four is the highest of the week — that belongs to Deadpool 2 at $680 FML Bucks. And that’s because projections for the four days are modest. The projection is $50.2 for Friday (including Thursday screenings), $39.7 for Saturday, $35 for Sunday and $26.4 for the Monday holiday. That makes it an interesting challenge to see what the best anchor combination is.

The Search for the Best Value:

As noted above, Deadpool 2 is the most expensive and carries the best solo projection at $55 million from Fantasy Movie League. But other sites are more bullish. Box Office Pro projects $66 million, while Box Office Report sees $63 million. That could make it a solid anchor option, but it comes at a cost.

Among the other possibilities are more counter-programming. Last week’s gem, Book Club, is reasonably priced at $133 FML Bucks and is projected between $11 and $13 million. That could make it a value. Also a possible value is Life of the Party, which is just $57 FML Bucks and projected between $5 and $6 million.

This Week’s Lineup:

This is a week where there are a lot of options, and a lot of possibilities. I think Sunday’s numbers for Solo could make it a value, and I’m going back to the well with Melissa McCarthy.

Solo: A Star Wars Story Sunday x2
Life of the Party x5
Overboard

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Burial a courtroom drama with heart

Image
Willie Gary (Jamie Foxx) is a brash trial lawyer who is good at rallying a jury to his cause. Jeremiah O’Keefe (Tommy Lee Jones) is a quiet grandfather who is trying to ensure the business his family built remains viable after he’s gone. These two don’t appear to have much in common on the surface. But when they’re brought together by young lawyer Hal Dockins (Mamoudou Athie) brings them together, a connection is formed over their shared background of working hard to become self-made men. And it turned out that Willie was just who Jerry needed in his corner to win the fight of his life. The new Prime Video film The Burial, which opened in theaters October 6 and started streaming October 13, captures that trial against the Loewen Group that changed the course of their lives. The film is based on the true story and covers the trial, but more importantly captures the relationship between the men. The film plays out like a traditional courtroom drama. Foxx is solid as Willie Gary, while Ju
Read more

Broncos Draft Targets

Image
  The NFL Draft is just a few days away. On April 25, the Denver Broncos will head into the draft in the midst of something of a rebuild. In the draft, the Broncos have the No. 12 pick in Round 1, then have a Third Round Pick, Fourth Round Pick, three Fifth Round Picks, a Sixth Round Pick, and a Seventh Round Pick. So, what might they be targeting? Let's dive in and look at possible positions. Quarterback : The team clearly needs a long-term quarterback. Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are there but the team could certainly use someone else. Could they move up for Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy? Yes, they could. Will the take Bo Nix at 12? It's possible. Or will the Broncos wait until next off-season to make a move? Anything is in play for the Broncos in 2024, but quarterback is surely a need. Tight End: The team brought back Adam Trautman and still has Greg Dulcich, but it's still a need. Dulcich hasn't been able to get on the field and Trautman hasn't been great. Co
Read more

Favorite Westerns, No. 43

Image
  Do you like a good Western? It's a classic genre in film and this year I've decided to look at some of my favorite Westerns. So, join me each Friday as I count down my favorite Westerns from No. 50 to No. 1. Rooster Cogburn : [ watching Mattie ford the river hanging on the back of her horse] By God. She reminds me of me. True Grit (1969) Starring : John Wayne, Kim Darby, Glen Campbell, Robert Duvall, and Dennis Hopper Director : Henry Hathaway About: This is the third straight week with a film from Wayne. As you might guess, we're not done. As I've mentioned, he sets a standard for the genre. Here, we seen him bring to life an iconic character. This one is based on a novel, and it has endured. He's great as Rooster Cogburn, so good that he got a sequel in the same character. But this is a later film in his career. This is a different, more grizzled Wayne. He's still quite good and this is a film that really has stood the test of time. It's not the only ve
Read more