Fantasy Movie League, An 'Incredible' Weekend at the Box Office


June started off slowly. The first weekend we didn’t have any big new releases and last weekend, while Ocean’s 8 had a solid start, it didn’t blow anyone away with its Box Office number. But that might change this weekend, as we have The Incredibles 2 opening, and its projections are so strong we again have daily scoring this week. But more on that in a minute.

Last week I liked Deadpool 2 as the anchor and value, placing it across four screens in my Cineplex. Turns out it was two other blockbusters — Solo and Avengers: Infinity War (which was the Best Value) — that produced the Perfect Cineplex. The most popular option was Ocean’s 8 plus Deadpool 2 and six of Upgraded. My Cineplex finished better than the Most Popular, but wasn’t perfect. So the quest continues.

This week we have three new entries to the game, but five new options for your Box Office since we again have daily scoring. That increases the challenge. Let’s look at our options.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new opening is the biggest animated film of the year so far — The Incredibles 2. The annual summer Pixar releases are always an event, and this one is 14 years in the making. The original film bowed in 2004 and was an instant hit. It still boasts a ridiculous 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. We always knew there would be a sequel, the question was just when it would come. Though it’s been a decade and a half, this new film picks up shortly after the events of the first. And this follow up is also beloved by critics, boasting a 94 percent critical score. More importantly, 99 percent of audiences said they want to see it. And with a dearth of family-friendly films out there, this feels like ideal timing.

So it makes sense this one is in daily scoring, as it will likely dominate the Box Office. Box Office Pro projects $152 million for the weekend, with Box Office Report projecting $143 million. The next closest film is projected in the $20 million range. Understandably, The Incredibles 2 boasts the three most expensive entries for the week with $521 FML Bucks for Friday, $427 FML Bucks for Saturday and $350 FML Bucks for Sunday. And its projections are $56.2 million for Friday, $46.5 million for Saturday and $35.4 million for Sunday. So the question is where to find the value with The Incredibles 2.
The next opener is Tag, a unique adult comedy about a group of friends that have played a long-term game of tag. It is based on a true story, and joins what’s fast becoming the glut of comedies released this summer. I had modest expectations this could be a break out, but so far critics have been underwhelmed. The film boasts just a 67 percent critical score, and has modest Box Office expectations. It costs just $145 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it in third place with about $14.8 million. But Box Office Pro projects $13 million and Box Office Report sees just $12.5 million. So it would have to be on the high end to return value.
The final new entry is Superfly, which is a re-make, or rather a re-imagining, of sorts. It has received an even more tepid response from critics, boasting just a 53 percent critical score. It’s only $71 FML Bucks, but Fantasy Movie League projects just $5.3 million. Box Office Pro sees $7 million and Box Office Report sees $8 million, which could make it a value.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week’s top entry, Ocean’s 8, is expected to hold up reasonably well. All three sites show it in second place with between $21-$22 million at the Box Office. And it’s relatively affordable at $201 FML Bucks. If it bested projections this week, it could return a value as a multi-screen anchor.

But there is another past Box Office leader that seems like an even better potential value — Solo: A Star Wars Story. It’s priced at $89 FML bucks, and Fantasy Movie League shows just $8.4 million as a projection. However, both Box Office Pro ($9.8 million) and Box Office Report ($10 million) are more bullish. That could make it an ideal upside pair with another anchor.

This Week’s Lineup:

There’s a lot of options here, but I think there could be value in Solo and Superfly, so I’m banking on that.

The Incredibles 2 (Sun)
Tag
Solo: A Star Wars Story x4
Superfly x2

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