Fantasy Movie League, A Jurassic Competition



After a lull since late April, the Box Office finally had some juice over the weekend thanks to the Incredibles. The sequel 14 years in the making proved worth the wait, making a mint on opening weekend and carrying a lot of Box Office excitement.

I had considered that Sunday seemed like a shot at value, and that proved correct. Sunday was the Best Value. However my bet on the value in Solo was off. My Cineplex — Incredibles 2 (Sunday), Tag, Solo x4, Superfly did well. But the perfect option was Sunday x2, Solo x2, Avengers x2, Hotel Artemis x2. So I came up about $22 million short. Close, but not close enough.

We again have daily scoring this week as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hits theaters. And it should have some fierce competition after the record-breaking week The Incredibles 2 put up.

New at the Box Office:



There are a couple new movies this week, and both are huge for different reasons. The biggest, though, is Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, the fifth film in the Jurassic Park franchise and a direct sequel to the incredible Jurassic World, which dominated the summer of 2015. I guess you can tell I’m excited. I’ve loved the Jurassic Park movies since I saw the original at age 12 during the summer of 1993. And I was thrilled with what Colin Trevorrow did with Jurassic World. Now we get the sequel, again featuring Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, this time with direction from J.A. Bayona. But this one hasn’t been a mega-hit with critics, currently boasting just a 56 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. While that won’t keep initial audiences from flocking, if the film isn’t as outstanding as the previous one, repeat business (and overall Box Office) could be lower. Not to mention it still faces some fierce competition thanks to The Incredibles 2.

Given that this movie is expected to be huge (like $100 million plus huge), it is in daily scoring. But it doesn’t have the most expensive option (that still belongs to The Incredibles 2 at $725 FML Bucks). Box Office Pro projects $129 million for the weekend, while Box Office Report projects $124 million. Either way, it should be atop the Box Office. Friday is the biggest cost, at $412 FML Bucks, and will include preview screenings. Saturday is $334 FML Bucks and Sunday is $274 FML Bucks. The projections from Fantasy Movie League show $57.5 million Friday, $46.4 million Saturday and $36.5 million Sunday. With several daily scoring options in 2018, Sunday has provided sneaky value on opening weekend. In fact, that was the case with The Incredibles 2, so it’s something to consider here.


The other new movie is Won’t You Be My Neighbor, a documentary about Mr. Rogers, the PBS star who hosted the beloved children’s series. I’m the right age that, like Jurassic World, this is right up my alley, and I’ve been looking forward to seeing this one for a while. It boasts a ridiculous 99 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and is likely the Best Documentary front-runner for the Academy Awards. It is priced at $16 FML Bucks and is projected at $1.8 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees it at $1.8 million and Box Office Report sees $2 million. That makes it average filler. But there are times when you have a feeling in your gut, and I could see this movie — and its appeal to younger Gen Xers and Millennials — leading to a boon at the Box Office.

The Search for the Best Value:



I’m going to be honest, there isn’t much this week that stands out. Looking across the three projections Fantasy Movie League is higher, or on par, with the other two in just about every smaller film. And it’s hard to see an obvious place to grab an under-valued option. Most projections show Jurassic World and The Incredibles 2 sucking up all the Box Office juice, and I think that’s about right. I loved Tag, but it doesn’t seem to have big Box Office traction. It’s priced at $59 FML Bucks and carries projections of $7.6, $7.7 and $7.8 million.

The biggest question is the choice of anchor. The Incredibles 2 is projected between $90 and $95 million, but is the most expensive option. That makes it a tough choice to be a value, and forces you to consider whether you can get equal, or greater, value by adding in multiple screens of Jurassic World.

This Week’s Lineup:

The cost of The Incredibles 2 makes it difficult to pack stuff in around it. Looking at the cost and projections, there’s a case to be made that Ocean’s 8 is the better comedy value, and may have the most counter-programming appeal to the top two options. So I’m rolling with it.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Saturday) x2

Ocean’s 8 x4
Won’t You Be My Neighbor x2

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