Fantasy Movie League: Sicario is Back!

Well, last weekend was interesting. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had some modest projections, which it beat, while Incredibles 2 wasn’t quite as incredible in Week 2 at the Box Office. So it goes this summer for Fantasy Movie League players.

In the end I thought Ocean’s 8 might have some value, and it turned out to be the Best Value. I played it across four screens, which worked out swell. But Saturday wasn’t the best day of Jurassic World, that was Sunday, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was better than projected but not incredible. So my Cineplex was solid, but not the best. That honor (by less than $10 million including bonuses) belonged to Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Sunday) x2, and Ocean’s 8 x6. I was close, but not quite there.

I’ll try for better this week as we have a trio of new films, but none predicted to be better than third at this weekend’s Box Office. But first, an announcement.

I know many of you have probably longed for a weekly competition with me, just so that I officially know you’re better at Fantasy Movie League than I am. Well, you’re in luck. I have created a Fantasy Life App Blog league where you can compete against me each week (or just use the lineup I post as a means of taunting me). The invite link is here, and the password is fantasylife. The league will begin with next weekend’s offerings and the initial season will run until the end of summer, then we’ll start a new fall season. I look forward to seeing you all compete!

Now on to this week’s options!

New at the Box Office:

It’s a coin flip about which will be the bigger new release this week, but I’ll start with Uncle Drew. This basketball themed comedy starring Kyrie Irving, Shaq and Reggie Miller, among others, hasn’t exactly hit with critics. It currently boasts a 59 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. But that’s probably not all that surprising, and probably won’t dissuade the target audience. It is the most expensive new option in the game, at $275 FML Bucks, and it’s projected at $15.3 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro projects $16 million, but Box Office Report sees it at just $13 million. It would need to be on the high side of projections to be a strong value.

The next film is Sicario: Day of the Soldado, a follow up to the excellent 2015 film starring Emily Blunt. This one returns Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin — AKA the star of the summer of 2018 — but no Blunt. Director Denis Villeneuve also did not participate in this sequel, so it’s fair to wonder how the film will go. But Taylor Sheridan again wrote the screenplay, and it boasts a solid 72 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. So it should be solid. For the film’s ardent fans (and I’m among them), this sequel is one of the most highly anticipated films of summer. But the original — which was a fall release — made just $47 million during its theatrical run. So what should we expect here? Well, Fantasy Movie League has it projected at $13.8 million and priced it at $201 FML Bucks. Box Office Pro is similar, at $14 million, while Box Office Report is much more bullish at $17.5. If it’s at the higher end, it could be a big value as an anchor.

The final new entry is Sanju, a Bollywood film that is a biopic of a famous Indian actor and activist. There is no critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but the film will open wide enough in the United States for inclusion in the game. It costs $30 FML Bucks and Fantasy Movie League projects it at $1.9 million. Box Office Report projects $2.1 million, and suggests it could land in the Top 10. If it does, it could be a lower-end value.

The Search for the Best Value:

This week feels a bit like deja vu. Incredibles 2 is the most expensive option (at $591 FML Bucks) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is in daily scoring, providing the next three most expensive options. Last week Jurassic World outpaced its projections, but thanks to a middling critical score and mediocre word of mouth (you can see my thoughts here), I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slip a little lower than expected this week. (Last weekend Incredibles 2, a film with great word of mouth, was projected at around $90 million and made about $80 million.) Box Office Pro projects Jurassic World at the top with $62 million, while Box Office Report sees $63 million. Daily scoring has it $16.3 million Friday, $25.6 million Saturday and $20.2 million Sunday. Given the relative cost ($278 FML Bucks) Sunday would seem to be the best bet for value. Incredibles 2 has projections ranging from $43 to $47 million. But it also is the most expensive option by more than $200 FML Bucks.

Another question to consider is the holiday timing. Since the Fourth of July is on Wednesday, we’ll likely see a split holiday weekend impact as some begin a long weekend Friday and others will begin a long weekend on Wednesday. That means travel and other impacts will be spread out at the Box Office over the next two weeks.

This Week’s Lineup:

I looked at a lot of combinations. If Incredibles 2 hits the top end of projections, or bests them, it’s enticing. But I decided to take a big swing. Earlier this fall Box Office Report was more bullish on a few movies than others. And in nearly every case those films, which were more targeted at the male audience, were closer to the Box Office Report projections and provided value. I think they could be dead on about Sicario: Day of the Soldado this week, and it’s worth a gamble to me.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado x4

Ocean’s 8

Solo: A Star Wars Story x3