Fantasy Movie League, a crowded Summer weekend

The July 4th weekend went about how I expected. Ant-Man and The Wasp was tops at the Box Office, but below projections. And The Incredibles 2 was the best anchor. For much of the weekend, it was THE Best Value, and looked to finish in second place.

Instead, when the actuals were released, it dropped just a touch, falling to third place behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and just behind Sanju as Best Value. So that, as they say, was a bit of a bummer. In addition to betting three screens of The Incredibles 2, I went with three screens of Sicario: Day of the Soldado — which had been Best Value and the best anchor the previous week. But Sicario didn’t hold us as well in week two in release. So I missed the Best Value by a hair, and I missed the Perfect Cineplex — which was The Incredibles 2 x4, Ocean’s 8 and Sanju x3. It was a difference of $20 million with bonuses.

But I’m right in the ball park at least! And you can go head-to-head with me each week by joining the Fantasy Life App Blog league here. And this week the quest for perfection continues as five new films enter the competition. On to this week’s Box Office!

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release this week is Hotel Transylvania 3, the sequel to the popular animated franchise led by Adam Sandler that debuted in 2012. The film is projected to be atop the Box Office this week, with Fantasy Movie League projecting $43.2 million and Box Office Report projecting $46 million. (As of this writing, Box Office Pro hadn’t posted weekend projections.) The film is the most expensive of the week at $523 FML Bucks, and it boasts a modest 66 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s not a deal-breaker for a kids’ movie, especially one with a built-in audience. For it to return value, though, it would need to be on the high end — or exceed — projections. This is the first film in the series to debut during the summer. As you might expect, this Halloween-themed cartoon saw its original bow to just over $45 million debuting in late September 2012, while the sequel opened with $48 million in late September 2015. If it matches the sequel, or even tops the original and falls between them, it could return value. But it faces some in-market competition from The Incredibles 2, which has held up well.

The next biggest opener is Skyscrapper, which some have likened to Die Hard. This one stars Dwayne Johnson and looks like a lot of action and summer fun. It boasts just a 54 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but I think that will hardly phase the target audience. The film is second most expensive at $394 FML Bucks, but has projections that leave it second or third at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League projects $33.2 million (just $200,000 behind Ant-Man and The Wasp), while Box Office Report projects $30 million, and second place. Both those figures are a little below recent openings for Johnson, who had seen at least $35 million on opening weekend for Central Intelligence, Rampage and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. So, if he gets in his typical range, this could return value. 

The next new film is Sorry to Bother You, the socially conscious indie that has been a critical darling. It currently boasts a 95 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and has drawn audiences since being released in limited fashion last weekend. Now it’s expanding so more can get a look. The film costs $74 FML Bucks, and boasts modest projections of $4.4 million from Fantasy Movie League and $5.2 million from Box Office Report. It is little more than an upside filler at this point.

The next new release is Three Identical Strangers, a documentary about triplets separated at birth and the story of when they found each other. It’s drawn some festival buzz, and it’s been a big year so far for documentaries, so this could draw some viewers. It also boasts a 95 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. This one is still in limited release, meaning it doesn’t have full coverage. It costs $16 FML Bucks and is projected at $1 million by Fantasy Movie League. It’s little more than an end of cinema dart throw in the competition.

The final new entry is another limited release documentary, Whitney, which chronicles the life of singer Whitney Houston. Houston remains a cultural fascination, but one that seems to have been explored in great detail in the past, which could limit the audience for this documentary. It did fairly well with critics, boasting an 88 percent critical score, but is has just a 63 percent score of audiences who want to see it, possibly indicating some burn out with the subject. It’s only $14 FML bucks, but it’s projected at less than $1 million, so play it with caution.

The Search for the Best Value:

Aside from new releases, we have our same trio battling it out near the top of the Box Office with Ant-Man and The Wasp, Jurassic World and The Incredibles 2 still holding strong. Ant-Man and The Wasp opened below expectations with just $77 million, but positive word-of-mouth may keep people coming in during subsequent weeks, limiting the fall off. It’s the third most expensive film at $387 FML Bucks, but Fantasy Movie League projects $33.4 million. Box Office Report is less bullish, projecting $29 million.

Jurassic World was a solid performer last week, and may have a better shot at value sitting at $174 FML Bucks with a projection between $14 and $15 million. And Won’t You Be My Neighbor? continues to impress. It’s just $30 FML Bucks and projected around $2.2 million. It was a Best Value two weeks ago, and top three in that category last week.

This Week’s Lineup:

When you hit a week with a ton of different options, all you can do is try and take your shot at hitting the Best Value. I think the projections for Skyscrapper are low, and Transylvania 3 might be high. Jurassic World could provide value, and I think indie crowds will flock to Sorry to Bother You and Three Identical Strangers. So I’m taking my shot.

Skyscrapper

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom x2

Sorry to Bother You x3

Three Identical Strangers x2