Fantasy Movie League, Tom Cruise goes on another impossible mission


When are we going to learn? The biggest trend this year has been gritty action films aimed at older male audiences outpacing their projections. It’s been the most bankable trend in our game, and Box Office Report has been on top of the trend. So while conventional thinking was Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again would top the Box Office, some were more bullish on Equalizer 2. And, turns out, Equalizer 2, behind Denzel Washington and a hail of bullets, was the winner at the Box Office.

I wasn’t sold on Equalizer 2 being that strong, so I didn’t use it as an anchor and missed the Perfect Cineplex — and Best Value which was also Equalizer 2 — by quite a little bit. I bet on Ant-Man and The Wasp outpacing projections and providing good value, and it did both of those things. The First Purge, which I played, also provided good value. Sicario, however, slipped a lot. So it was a decent performance, but not a winning performance.

Remember you can go head-to-head with me each week by joining the Fantasy Life App Blog league here. This week the quest for perfection continues as four new films enter the competition, and one film — Three Identical Strangers — returns to the game after a week away. On to this week’s Box Office!

New at the Box Office:

There are four new films joining the game, with the biggest by far being Mission Impossible Fallout, the sixth installment in the Mission Impossible franchise. The film boasts a ridiculous 98 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and is being hailed as the best of the franchise so far. That’s high praise, and an indication that this film will dominate at the Box Office this weekend. It’s priced accordingly at $756 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it at $63.6 million. Box Office Report is less bullish with $57 million, and Box Office Pro hadn’t offered a projection at the time of this writing. So that’s a critical consideration. If you use Mission Impossible Fallout as an anchor, you need it to be at or exceeding the top end projections to return solid value because of its cost.
The next biggest movie is an animated film, Teen Titans GO! to the Movies. It joins a marketplace that includes Hotel Transylvania 3, so it doesn’t have a clear path to dominant market share. It does boast a strong 90 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but only 60 percent among those that want to see it, which is low for that site and format. It is priced at $149 FML Bucks, but the projections are modest. Fantasy Movie League calls for it to finish fifth, behind Hotel Transylvania 3, with $13.4 million. Box Office Report sees it in the same place with $13.5 million. So it would need to beat those projections solidly to return value.
The next new entry is the politically charged film Blindspotting, which has gotten exceptional reviews and boasts a 92 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. But this isn’t the typical summer movie, and it’s not projected to drawn huge crowds. It’s been out a few weeks in limited release but is finally getting an expansion. Still, it’s priced at $41 FML Bucks and projected at $3 million on Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Report projects just $2 million, and has it out of the Top 10. So it’s a risky filler bet.
The final new entry is another critical darling, Eighth Grade. The film boasts a 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and is in limited release. It costs just $26 FML Bucks, but it’s projected at less than $1 million, making it a risky bet for low-end filler.

The Search for the Best Value:

Denzel did it again as Equalizer 2 grabbed $36 million last weekend to lead the Box Office and return the best value. But can he do it again? The film is priced at $201 FML Bucks, third most in the game, and is projected at $18.3 million by Fantasy Movie League, but just $16 million by Box Office Report. It’s quite possible that the arrival of Mission Impossible will siphon off this film’s audience. On the other hand, Mamma Mia! is priced at $227 FML Bucks and carries projections between $19.8 and $20.5 million. You can program both across four screens, giving it some serious anchor appeal against Mission Impossible.

In the mid-range, I still like Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. It’s priced at $76 FML bucks and carries a $6.7 million projection.

This Week’s Lineup:

I was tempted by Equalizer 2, but as so often happens that feels like chasing last week’s value. This week, the value is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, which offers counter-programming to the clear top option at the Box Office.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again x4
The First Purge x2
Three Identical Strangers x2

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