Fantasy Movie League: Holiday Weekend Doldrums


Not all movie weekends are created equal, and while Memorial Day is a time when blockbusters come out, Labor Day is a time when even movie companies know there won’t be many at the theater. It’s the end of summer, the last chance for trips and lazy barbecues, and it’s also the beginning of the College Football Season. Those things matter, and are often a reason that Labor Day weekend ushers in a slower period at the movies.

In fact, we saw that begin last weekend as the “biggest” new release — the odd puppet erotica of The Happytime Murders — flopped at the Box Office, finishing in third place with $9.5 million. I didn’t advocate playing that film last week, and it turned out to be good advice. Crazy Rich Asians continued to thrive and finished with nearly $25 million, serving as the best anchor and the Best Value. The Perfect Cineplex has Crazy Rich Asians x2, The Meg, Slenderman x2, Equalizer 2 x2 and The Incredibles 2. It was better than mine, where I bet on the value in Christopher Robin that never materialized. Oh well, sometimes you swing and miss.

If you think you’re better at the game than me (and it wouldn’t be hard), I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. This will be a dull weekend for competition, but there are four new films adding to the game hoping to rise near the top of the heap.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new film of the weekend actually got a jump on things, opening wide on Wednesday. It’s the thriller Operation Finale, starring Oscar Isaac and Ben Kingsley in a story about hunting down a Nazi war criminal. The film boasts a 62 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and is the most costly of new releases at $133 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League projects it for $8.8 million, however they’re the lowest on the film. Box Office Pro sees $10.4 million and Box Office Report is even more bullish with $12.7 million. Given the cast and subject, this film might be perfectly programmed on this holiday weekend, and its cost and projections make it an ideal anchor option.
The next biggest new film is Searching, which is a new kind of film about a father (John Cho) seeking his daughter. It boasts an impressive 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s been in release for a few weeks, but it’s finally getting a big expansion here. And it’s got some buzz. It costs $111 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $7.1 million. Box Office Report projects $8.8 million, but Box Office Pro projects just $3.6 million. Given the variation, it’s a riskier bet.
Next up is the sci-fi film Kin, which has thus far fallen flat with critics at just a 29 percent critical score. It’s just $82 FML Bucks, but it has very little buzz. Fantasy Movie League projects $5.9 million, while Box Office Pro projects just $3.5 million and Box Office Report is going with just $4.5 million. This one is a stay away for me.
The final new film is the foreign language entry Ya Veremos. It’s a family story about a son dealing with his parents’ divorce, and it comes in at just $56 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League projects it for $2.5 million, but they’re the only site to include it. This one also is a stay away for me as it’s too hard to project how these kind of films will be received and how wide they’ll open.

The Search for the Best Value:

Crazy Rich Asians just keeps on going. It’s again projected to lead the Box Office, and should easily. Projections range from $29.5 to $34 million. But the game has adjusted, and at $460 FML Bucks it’s the most expensive option by far. It would really have to bust projections again in order to come close to returning value.

Another couple veterans holding strong are The Meg and Mission Impossible Fallout. The Meg is $204 FML Bucks, and boasts projections between $14 and $15 million, and should be in second place. It could provide value and has an easier path to cineplex glory than Crazy Rich Asians at its price point. Mission Impossible Fallout is the third most expensive film at $143 FML bucks, but may hold appeal as a big summer blockbuster while that season draws to a close. It boasts projections between $9 and $10 million. Among the smaller films, they all feel like dart throws to me given the weekend and the middling reception for movies released the last month that don’t involve Crazy Rich Asians.

This Week’s Lineup:

I believe that Operation Finale offers the best value, and I’m swinging big for it.

Operation Finale x7
The Incredibles 2

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