Fantasy Movie League: Romance versus a giant Shark


Well, last week was interesting. I had a feeling The Meg was being undervalued a bit, but it seemed like BlacKkKlansman was a clear value, too. Turned out both things were true. BlacKkKlansman would have been a great value, were it not for the huge showing by The Meg.

The film was projected at about $26-$27 million. It made $44.5 million in the U.S. alone. It was, obviously, the Best Value for the week. I played a lineup of The Meg and BlacKkKlansman x7. That was good. The Perfect Cineplex was better. It had The Meg x2, BlacKkKlansman x3, The Incredibles 2 and The Darkest Minds, with one screen open. I was close, but not quite close enough.

I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but if you think you’re better at the game than me (and it wouldn’t be hard), I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. This week, a highly anticipated Rom-Com will battle a pre-historic shark for Box Office supremacy.

New at the Box Office:

There are three new films opening this week, but none is bigger than Crazy Rich Asians. The thing is, the film opened on Wednesday, which means it will have two days of Box Office run before the weekend. That could actually tamp down its three-day weekend gross. The film is the most expensive option in Fantasy Movie League, at $358 FML Bucks, and is actually projected in second for the weekend by FML with $18.4 million. They are actually the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $21.6 million, while Box Office Report sees as high as $24 million. And the film boasts a great score on Rotten Tomatoes, currently at 94 percent. But at those numbers, it’s not the highest yield return for an anchor. Also of concern to me is other female-focused films this summer, including most recently Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, have failed to meet expectation. 
The next new film up is Mile 22, the action film starring Mark Wahlberg. This film enters the fray in a crowded marketplace, as we’ve seen several male-focused action films drop in the last month. And with better made films like Mission Impossible Fallout still in theaters, this could struggle to gain traction. The fact it doesn’t yet have a score on Rotten Tomatoes is another red flag, one that indicates the film might not have been well received. It is $296 FML Bucks, and everyone puts it in the $16.5 to $18 million range, with Fantasy Movie League the lowest. That makes it difficult to gauge value.
The final new release is Alpha, a period piece in the time of cavemen about a boy who’s injured and separated from his people and the wolf that befriends him. This doesn’t feel like a typical summer movie, and it’s hard to imagine this is going to be explosive at the Box Office. It’s only $89 FML Bucks, and both Fantasy Movie League and Box Office Pro see it at around $5 million. Box Office Report goes as high as $8 million. If it’s on the upper end, it could return some value.

The Search for the Best Value:

Nothing was bigger, literally and metaphorically, last weekend than The Meg. And it’s clear the film could have another huge weekend. It’s set at $356 FML Bucks, barely below Crazy Rich Asians, and carries projections between $19 and $22 million. Some have it in first, or tied for first, while Box Office Report sees it in second. I guess the question is how you feel about Crazy Rich Asians, and if you think the film can produce for two weeks in a row. And I think it can. The summer was made for big spectacle films, and The Meg steers right into that, delivering what you’d expect from this type of film. And I think generally positive word of mouth will keep it movie. (It’s also one of the few films you can see right now with Movie Pass). 

Last week Slenderman returned OK value, and BlacKkKlansman returned great value. But the projections for both seem on par this week, so you’d want to look elsewhere. A couple that stand out to me in the mid-range are Mission Impossible Fallout, which is $193, and feels like a better value in that demographic than Mile 22 and Christopher Robin, which is $128, and now appears to be in range to return value.

This Week’s Lineup:

I still believe in the power of sharks.

The Meg x2
Alpha
The Incredibles 2 x5

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