Fantasy Movie League: A flood to end September


We’ve reached the final weekend in September, and with some prestige releases just around the corner, it makes sense that studios are flooding the market with new releases. Many are family friendly. Some are themed for Halloween. All have middling Box Office prospects, as has been the case throughout the month of September.

Last week in the game I thought A Simple Favor seemed like a good bet for Best Value, but I missed. The result was a Box Office haul for me of just over $50 million, which isn’t spectacular. The Nun ended up providing the Best Value, and anchoring the Perfect Cineplex, which earned more than $70 million. So I have some work to do. Fortunately I didn’t buy into Fahrenheit 11/9, which tanked and tanked the Most Popular Cineplex option.

This week four more new movies enter the fray, including a comedy, an animated film, a horror film and a modern update of a classic novel. And as always, i f you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Night School, the new comedy led by Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish. It hasn’t been a hit with critics so far, pulling in a pathetic 29 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. But this kind of film isn’t usually a hit with critics, but that doesn’t typically matter to audiences — at least on opening week. And Hart and Haddish have a built-in fanbase that should pull people out for opening weekend. It’s by far the most expensive entry in the game at $616 FML Bucks, but doesn’t have killer projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $27.6 million, while Box Office Pro projects $30 million and Box Office Report projects $29.5 million. So it should be in first, but might be hard pressed to return value in the game.
The next entry is Smallfoot, that animated film led by Channing Tatum (that also features Hart). This one could do sneaky well, especially in appealing to audiences of all ages. And it’s been decently well received, posting a 75 percent critical score. That suggests it could have some staying power. It’s $363 FML Bucks, and projected at $23 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro projects $22.5 million, while Box Office Report projects $24.5 million. That could give it more appeal as an anchor option.
The next entry is the horror entry Hellfest. What can I say, Halloween is a month away and these kind of low-budget films always return a profit. It doesn’t have a score on Rotten Tomatoes, but that hardly matters. It costs $128 FML Bucks and is projected at $5.6 million by Fantasy Movie League and Box Office Pro, and at $5.4 million by Box Office Report. So it’s hard to say whether it will return value in the game at that price unless you think it will draw more of a crowd.
The final new release is Little Women, a modern updating of the classic tale. It doesn’t boast many stars and it only has a 50 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but it does come with a built-in audience. The question is whether it will get buried at the Box Office. Clearly Fantasy Movie League thinks it will, pricing it at $33 FML Bucks and projecting just $1.1 million. Box Office Pro and Report didn’t project it in the Top 10 either. And we saw another film aiming to pull at the heart strings — Life Itself — bomb at the Box Office this month. But if you’re looking for a possible home run at the end of your Cineplex, again this has a built-in audience.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last Week’s top film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, performed really well, and is the right kind of film at the right kind of year to have a bit of staying power. It’s priced at $318, but carries projections in the $14.5 to $15 million range. That could provide value depending on how you feel about Smallfoot.

In other films, The Nun continues to pull in audiences despite its reviews and audience score, likely owing to being close to Halloween and the prestige of The Conjuring franchise. And Searching is the little indie that just keeps hanging around the top of the value chart. It’s just $25 FML Bucks this week and continues to get near universal praise.

This Week’s Lineup:

I think Smallfoot has the best chance as an anchor, and I can’t quite quit A Simple Favor yet.

Smallfoot
A Simple Favor x3
Crazy Rich Asians
Little Women x3

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Burial a courtroom drama with heart

Image
Willie Gary (Jamie Foxx) is a brash trial lawyer who is good at rallying a jury to his cause. Jeremiah O’Keefe (Tommy Lee Jones) is a quiet grandfather who is trying to ensure the business his family built remains viable after he’s gone. These two don’t appear to have much in common on the surface. But when they’re brought together by young lawyer Hal Dockins (Mamoudou Athie) brings them together, a connection is formed over their shared background of working hard to become self-made men. And it turned out that Willie was just who Jerry needed in his corner to win the fight of his life. The new Prime Video film The Burial, which opened in theaters October 6 and started streaming October 13, captures that trial against the Loewen Group that changed the course of their lives. The film is based on the true story and covers the trial, but more importantly captures the relationship between the men. The film plays out like a traditional courtroom drama. Foxx is solid as Willie Gary, while Ju
Read more

Broncos Draft Targets

Image
  The NFL Draft is just a few days away. On April 25, the Denver Broncos will head into the draft in the midst of something of a rebuild. In the draft, the Broncos have the No. 12 pick in Round 1, then have a Third Round Pick, Fourth Round Pick, three Fifth Round Picks, a Sixth Round Pick, and a Seventh Round Pick. So, what might they be targeting? Let's dive in and look at possible positions. Quarterback : The team clearly needs a long-term quarterback. Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are there but the team could certainly use someone else. Could they move up for Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy? Yes, they could. Will the take Bo Nix at 12? It's possible. Or will the Broncos wait until next off-season to make a move? Anything is in play for the Broncos in 2024, but quarterback is surely a need. Tight End: The team brought back Adam Trautman and still has Greg Dulcich, but it's still a need. Dulcich hasn't been able to get on the field and Trautman hasn't been great. Co
Read more

Favorite Westerns, No. 43

Image
  Do you like a good Western? It's a classic genre in film and this year I've decided to look at some of my favorite Westerns. So, join me each Friday as I count down my favorite Westerns from No. 50 to No. 1. Rooster Cogburn : [ watching Mattie ford the river hanging on the back of her horse] By God. She reminds me of me. True Grit (1969) Starring : John Wayne, Kim Darby, Glen Campbell, Robert Duvall, and Dennis Hopper Director : Henry Hathaway About: This is the third straight week with a film from Wayne. As you might guess, we're not done. As I've mentioned, he sets a standard for the genre. Here, we seen him bring to life an iconic character. This one is based on a novel, and it has endured. He's great as Rooster Cogburn, so good that he got a sequel in the same character. But this is a later film in his career. This is a different, more grizzled Wayne. He's still quite good and this is a film that really has stood the test of time. It's not the only ve
Read more