Fantasy Movie League, The Predator Returns


Sometimes you are dead on the money, sometimes you’re way off. Last week, I was dead on the money about The Nun, a film that appeared to be soaring in projections and was likely the Best Value. And it did, and it was. The film made more than $53 million and was the Best Value, and the anchor of the Perfect Cineplex.

But I was also dead wrong about God Bless The Broken Road. It was a new Christian film, and it had modest projections at best. I thought those could be low, providing value. They weren’t low, they were high. The film made less than $2 million opening weekend, and me programming four screens of it did me no favors. Hey, they can’t all be winners.

So it was a flat start to the new Fall Season, but there’s 12 more weeks to make up ground, beginning with this weekend. If you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

There are four new movies in the competition this week, the biggest of which is The Predator. This is a film series that has been done and re-done frequently over the years, but this time it’s coming from director Shane Black. The film has a good cast, and had generated positive buzz until stories broke last week about Black casting a sex offender in the film. It’s hard to say how that will adjust projections, but it’s clear that it wasn’t a hit with critics. The film currently boasts a pitiful 39 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s the most expensive film in the game at $408 FML Bucks, but it doesn’t have incredible projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $27.8 million, while Box Office Pro projects $29 million and Box Office Report projects $26.8 million. Given that, it’s a questionable choice as anchor.
The next biggest opening is A Simple Favor, the latest film from Paul Feig. He’s known for comedies, and this one has Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick, but it doesn’t look like a comedy. It is, however, the best reviewed film of the week with a 79 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. It costs $257 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $17.9 million and Box Office Report projects $17.5 million, but Box Office Pro projects just $15 million. That makes it a gamble in terms of finding value.
The next biggest release is White Boy Rick, based on a true story and starring Matthew McConaughey and looked like a film that was hoping to be an early entry into the awards conversation. However, its 51 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes isn’t promising on that score. It costs $137 FML Bucks and carries modest projections. Fantasy Movie League is at $8.7 million, while Box Office Report sees $9.4 million. But Box Office Pro is again lower at $7.9 million. The disparity makes it a tough bet to gauge.
The final new entry is Unbroken: The Path to Redemption, which continues the story from Laura Hillenbrand’s book that was first show in the Angelina Jolie film Unbroken. Jolie doesn’t participate in the sequel, and the cast is entirely new. This one also doesn’t have a big studio backing it and has no critical score. It’s just $40 FML Bucks and projected at $2.5 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Report goes as high as $3.8 million, giving it some low-end filler appeal.

The Search for the Best Value:

The Nun ruled the Box Office a week ago, but it has a paltry 26 percent critical score and 47 percent audience score suggests a low probability of repeat customers. The Nun is still costly at $338 FML Bucks, and it boasts projections of $19 to $22 million. That’s not terrible, but it’s not great value. And it could be high given the wealth of other choices and the poor audience score, which suggests a mediocre word-of-mouth.

On the flip side, Crazy Rich Asians continues to do well and be beloved. Fantasy Movie League sees $7.8 million, pricing it at $131 FML Bucks. But Box Office Pro is at $9 million and Box Office Report is at $9.7 million, making it a decent bet for Best Value. And it’s one that could load a Cineplex. 

This Week’s Lineup:

I like the value of Crazy Rich Asians, and I have more faith in it than in a lot of what we’ve being given. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see A Simple Favor best projections.

A Simple Favor
Crazy Rich Asians x5
Unbroken: Path to Redemption x2

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