Fantasy Movie League: September Doldrums have arrived

We’re early in the Fall season for Fantasy Movie League, but already it’s been a bit of a bummer. And that’s because the uneven releases with middling reviews have made it hard to handicap what audiences will go see. Not to mention the start of Fall activities, the return of College Football on Saturdays and the NFL on Thursdays, Sundays and Mondays has reduced the pool at the theater each weekend.

But still we strive. And last week it seemed like A Simple Favor was the best of the new options, and it was, and Crazy Rich Asians could return the Best Value, but it didn’t. That, instead, went to The Meg, which keeps on churning. So the Perfect Cineplex (A Simple Favor x3, The Meg x5) brought in $82 million. My option produced about $64 million. The Most Popular option produced $56 million. I wasn’t the worst, but I was far from the best. Lesson learned.

So this week as four new films enter the fray, it’s once again time to determine where the value is. Without clear-cut hits, it makes the game more interesting. I was close, but missed last week. Let’s see if this week can be better. And as always, i f you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

As I mentioned, there are four new entries with the biggest being The House With The Clock in Its Walls. This family-friendly flick features Jack Black and Cate Blanchett, and appears to be ideally timed to coincide with the rapidly approaching Halloween holiday season. It costs the most at $476 FML Bucks, but boasts a tepid 59 percent critical score. That score likely won’t prevent the target audience from checking it out, or the film from reaching the top of the Box Office. But will it return value? Fantasy Movie League forecasts $23.2 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $22 million and Box Office Report is the lowest at $21.7 million. So given its cost and projections, it seems a poor anchor.

Next up is Life Itself, which comes from the co-creator of This Is Us. It seems like a film designed to elicit tears, which will make it a favorite among a certain target audience. Its cost is $143 FML Bucks, but the score is a pathetic 13 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. This feels like the kind of film that can sink due to bad reviews, and they don’t come much lower than this. Fantasy Movie League projected $3.8 million, while Box Office Report projected $4.7 million. Either way, it’s a stay away for me.

Next up is the Michael Moore documentary Fahrenheit 11/9, which will doubtless be an attack on the current administration timed to take advantage of the political season leading up to the mid-term elections. Moore’s films are sometimes hit-or-miss in terms of quality, but always speak to his base. This will draw a crowd, but how big of a crowd? It’s $115 FML Bucks, and boasts a respectable 87 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. But it only has a 64 percent among those who want to see it, indicating it’s a polarizing option for audiences. Fantasy Movie League projects about $5 million, with Box Office Report projecting $6 million. That could make it have some value as an option given the price.

The final new entry is the indie film Assassination Nation — which by the title I can only assume is a comedy. (Just kidding.) The film costs just $69 FML Bucks and boasts a 59 percent critical score. Fantasy Movie League projects $1.1 million, while Box Office Report projects $2.3 million. This also feels like a stay away for me.

The Search for the Best Value:

As you can see, it’s an underwhelming slate of new movies. And without a central focus for the Box Office, and with poor audience scores for the past two first place films — The Nun and The Predator — it is easy to see why this segmented Box Office could be hard to forecast. The pricing on FML bears that out, too. That’s why I’m intrigued by A Simple Favor, which drew strong reviews from critics and audiences, and performed well last week in release. With the combination of director Paul Feig and stars Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick, it feels like the first September release that could have modest staying power. At $202 FML Bucks it’s the third most costly in the game, but it carries projections between $8.8 million (Box Office Report) and $10.6 million (Fantasy Movie League), giving it potential value.

Among the others, it’s about finding some value. Late summer blockbusters like Mission Impossible: Fallout and The Meg continue to produce value at the bottom end, while Peppermint has been more of a hit with audiences than critics. All three were among the best values last week. Another film that could produce potential value is White Boy Rick, which didn’t open huge but still has an awards season profile and sits at just $98 FML Bucks this week.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m going all in on A Simple Favor and hoping it has some staying power.

A Simple Favor x4

Peppermint

Searching x2

Mission Impossible: Fallout