Fantasy Movie League: Michael Myers is Back


There are few movies that have endured the way Halloween has. The low-budget horror film from John Carpenter launched a genre and made Jamie Lee Curtis a star. It’s inspired countless sequels and re-makes. And now, 40 years later, it’s getting another sequel that returns Curtis to the world of Haddonfield. It will be by far the biggest event this weekend. But more on that in a minute.

Last week I bet on A Star is Born and The Hate U Give, with Smallfoot providing some buffer. Venom again bested predictions and was the right anchor. And while The Hate U Give was, for a time, listed as the best value, it got eclipsed by the nebulous Best of the Rest at the end. So I fell short of the mark. But I haven’t given up the fight.

Daily scoring returns this week, adding a new wrinkle to the game. And as always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The only new wide release is Halloween, David Gordon Green’s homage to the original that is a sequel that pretends all the movies that came between that first one and now never happened, including Halloween 2 and Halloween H20, which both featured Curtis’ Laurie Strode. This one imagines that Laurie has built a life and patiently waited for her chance to finally get her brother. And he’ll appear on Halloween night again to strike fear in the town of Haddonfield. The film boasts an 83 percent critical score, which is incredible for any film, let alone one in this genre. And the projections rightly assume this one will be huge!

Box Office Pro sees $80 million and Box Office Report sees $75 million. But where will the money come? That’s a key to the game, which is offering Halloween in daily scoring. The film boasts the two most expensive options, with Friday coming in at $394 and Saturday coming in at $352, while Sunday is modestly priced at $216. But that lines up with projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $32.4 million Friday (which includes Thursday previews), $26.4 million Saturday and $16.6 million Sunday. One of them could be a great anchor, but which one?
There are two other new entries to the game, both smaller films. The first is The Old Man and the Gun, starring Robert Redford and Sissy Spacek. It’s got an 89 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and will likely draw a different kind of crowd. But is it opening on enough screens to do any real damage? That’s the question. It’s only $23 FML Bucks and projected at $1.4 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Report is more bullish at $1.8 million, meaning it could have low-end value.
The final new entry is Beautiful Boy, the Oscar bait film starring Steve Carrell and Timotee Chalamet. It boasts just a 65 percent critical score and a 72 percent audience score, which isn’t particularly great for this kind of film. That combined with its limited release makes it a bit of a stretch. It’s $12 FML Bucks and projected at $1 million, which might be a stretch given those scores and its limited screenings.

The Search for the Best Value:

If you weren’t going to program Halloween, I’ll again say I’m drawn to A Star is Born, which keeps pulling in audiences and is projected ahead of Venom this week. That would make sense as I expect the target audience for Venom has some crossover with Halloween. Last week’s releases, First Man and Goosebumps 2, could also have some appeal in the mid-range. Both are in the $9 to $10 million range and priced at $148 and $143 FML Bucks, respectively.

Also of intrigue is The Hate U Give, which I’ve touted in limited release the past two weeks. It has a 97 percent critical score, and is a film that feels very timely. Its per theater average the last two weeks has been great, and it finally gets an expansion this week. It’s priced at $118 and has projections between $6.7 million and $7.7 million, so it might not be quite as good a value unless you think it bests those.

This Week’s Lineup:

There are a lot of places for some potential value this week. So I’m mixing it up a bit.

Halloween Saturday
Venom
Goosebumps 2 x2
Bad Times at the El Royale x2
The Old Man and the Gun x2

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