Fantasy Movie League: The November Onslaught Continues


November is going to be a huge month. There are nearly 20 new releases that will flood theaters in the first 21 days of the month. That’s a lot, and it doesn’t leave much room for error. Last week the first two big releases rolled out in Bohemian Rhapsody and Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and neither lit the world on fire with their reviews.

Still, the Queen biopic seemed on track to do well at the Box Office. I thought Bohemian Rhapsody was the best anchor, and it was. It was also the Best Value. But where I thought A Star is Born would be a good compliment, Venom continues to defy the odds. I was better than the Most Popular Cineplex, but not the best.

Well the November onslaught continues as we have five new films joining the game this week and another three major wide releases. Time to figure out where the value lies. And as always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is a classic tale re-told — Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch. This time it’s again animated, but feature-length. And it features the voice talents of Benedict Cumberbatch, among others. It clocks in at an economical 86 minutes and feels like an ideal family holiday film coming at the right time. The film only boasts a 63 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but that’s not likely to matter. It is by far the most expensive in the game at $800 FML Bucks. But it’s also got the highest projections, with Fantasy Movie League calling for $56.4 million and Box Office Report calling for $63 million. Still, given its price point, it’s a tough choice as anchor. The clear value isn’t there the way it was with Bohemian Rhapsody last week.
The next biggest release is the World War II Action film Overlord. I have to be honest, the trailers didn’t hook me. But it has some fantastic reviews. In fact, it sits at 90 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It also boasts a modest cost of $107 FML Bucks and is projected at $8.4 million by Fantasy Movie League and $10.2 million by Box Office Report. That could give it some value appeal.
The next new release is The Girl in the Spider’s Web, a Dragon Tattoo sequel with a new director and a new lead in Claire Foy. It’s had an aggressive marketing campaign, but boasts just a 54 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. So that makes it a curiosity. It’s priced at $150 FML Bucks, middle of the pack, and has projections of $11.4 million (Fantasy Movie League) and $10.7 million (Box Office Report). It feels like a stay away.
The next new release is Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the dark biopic from Melissa McCarthy. It boasts a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but it’s in a very limited release. It’s $21 FML Bucks and projected at $1.6 million. It’s nothing but some low-end filler.
The final new release is the foreign film Thugs of Hindostan, which is just $40 FML Bucks but seems to have some possible Box Office juice. Fantasy Movie League projected $3.2 million and Box Office Report projects $2.5 million. It could have some low-end appeal if you think it could make a Box Office splash.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Bohemian Rhapsody had a high price, but lofty projections. And it bested those, going over $51 million for the weekend. This week it’s again near the top of the projections and weekly cost. It is $372 FML Bucks and projected between $27 and $29.5 million. The enduring power of Queen and the band’s music seems to still resonate with audiences. And despite somewhat mixed reviews, the film is generating positive word of mouth. It’s projected at about half the Box Office haul of The Grinch, but it’s also less than half the cost. There seems to be some value there.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m betting on Freddie, and I also think Overlord could be a value.

Bohemian Rhapsody
Overlord x5
Venom
Smallfoot

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