Fantasy Movie League: A Holiday Feast

We’ve fast approaching Christmas, which means a flood of folks off work, with family and looking for a creative diversion. This is usually a rich time for new releases at the Box Office, and 2018 looks like no exception. Of course, that means a flood of new entries into the game, too. But more on that in a minute.

First we look back to last week. I thought the cards were lining up for The Mule to be a value. The cards betrayed me. Instead, Creed II was the Best Value. But The Mule was the right anchor, just two screens instead of my three, paired with The Grinch and five of Creed II. So I was close, but missed out on the strong fan interest in Creed II. Lessons learned, perhaps.

This week six new movies enter the game, which means plenty of time to dwell on what will be the biggest offering. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up. 

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Aquaman, played by Jason Momoa who was introduced during Justice League. D.C. keeps trying to build a cinematic empire, and most all the installments fall flat. But people keep spending money on them. And Aquaman will be no exception. It currently boasts a 68 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t terrible, and it’s the most expensive option in the game at $669 FML Bucks. That lines up with projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $74.3 million, Box Office Report goes with $75 million and Box Office Pro goes as high as $82 million. If it really hits the high end, it could yield value even at its cost.

The next biggest release is Mary Poppins Returns, the heavily anticipated sequel starring Emily Blunt. It’s been nominated for many Golden Globes already, and should be in line for more awards. It boasts a 78 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t incredible, but is around where A Star is Born bowed. It’s at $334 FML Bucks and projected at a distant second. That might sound like flawed logic for a highly anticipated film, except that it was a Wednesday release, meaning it gets two and a half days at the Box Office before this weekend count. Fantasy Movie League projects $39.8 million, while Box Office Pro and Box Office Report project $36 million. It wouldn’t seem to be a value unless you think it bests those projections. However, I think this is the kind of movie folks will save for a Christmas Day viewing with family, so it could have better longevity than Aquaman while having a modest opening, somewhat like Jumanji last year.

The next biggest opening is Bumblebee, the spin-off of the Transformers universe. It’s been universally praised, drawing a ridiculous 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s priced at $222 FML Bucks and projected at $26.2 million by Fantasy Movie League. But they are the highest here. Box Office Pro sees $22 million and Box Office Report calls for $20 million. I think this is a case of fatigue with the franchise after a couple previously poor installments and opening against too much competition. This should have been a summer release. For me, it’s a stay away.

Next up is Welcome to Marwen, which features a great cast, is helmed by Forrest Gump director Robert Zemekis and based on a true story. It’s got all the elements to generate the feels, right? Well, apparently not. It boasts a woeful 24 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s priced at $32 FML Bucks and projected between $3.8 and $4.4 million, with Fantasy Movie League the lowest. There could be some value there, but this is trending toward a holiday season misfire.

Next up, we have Jennifer Lopez starring in Second Act. This one boasts a 59 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes and a low tracking score of 71 percent wanting to see it. That combined with timing will likely make this a tough sell right now, too. It feels like a Hallmark movie put on the big screen with a star they think is a draw on her own. But it’s 2018, not 2008, so we’ll see how that goes. It’s priced at $58 FML Bucks and projected between $6 and $7.2 million, with Fantasy Movie League the highest. This is a stay away for me, both in the game and in terms of seeing this film.

The final new entry in the game is Mary Queen of Scots, which is getting a wider expansion. This one feels like it should be awards bait with Saorise Ronan and Margot Robbie in the leads, but it has been a bit under the radar so far. It boasts just a 61 percent critical score, and only 55 percent said they liked it. So that’s not great. It clocks in at $25 FML Bucks, and is projected around $3 million. So it’s a low-end filler option at best. That might even be a high projection.

The Search for the Best Value:

This is a week where Fantasy Movie League is on par, or higher, than other projections on nearly every film. An exception might be Aquaman, where they are the lowest, and Welcome to Marwen, where they are the lowest. Among returning films, The Mule seems to have steady projections across all three sites, while Fantasy Movie League is by far the highest on last week’s top film, Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse. So it’s going to be a lot about trying to maximize dollars this week.

This Week’s Lineup:

I think it’s going to be hard to win if Aquaman isn’t in your lineup. Regardless of quality, it’s gonna be huge.

Aquaman

The Mule x2

Welcome to Marwen x5