Best Picture Nominees


The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday morning. We're firmly in the territory to consider what will be nominated for Best Picture. So, below, is some of my speculation. We'll find out how close it is on Tuesday.

Best Picture Locks:
* Roma
* Bohemian Rhapsody
* Green Book

 About: I think, no matter what, these three will make the final cut. Roma has been sweeping through award and critic lists, and though a foreign film has considerable momentum. I think it's sure to get in the Best Picture race. "Green Book," similarly, has won a number of awards and accolades and seems sure to at least get a Best Picture nomination. "Bohemian Rhapsody" has also done well, and after its Golden Globe win I think it's certain to make the final cut. Whether any of these three actually win is a question to consider later, but I feel pretty sure they will all three make the final field.

Good Bets:
* The Favourite
* A Star is Born
* If Beale Street Could Talk
* Black Panther
* BlacKkKlansman

 About: These five seem like pretty good bets. "The Favourite" is getting a lot of buzz for its performances, and "A Star Is Born" and "Black Panther" are the most populist films that have drawn wide audiences and great acclaim. It's hard to imagine either being left out of the nominations at this point as they will drive the ratings, too. "Beale Street" and "BlacKkKlansman" have been praised quite a bit, and both seem likely to be in the final group, too. I don't think these five are locks, but it would be a mild surprise to see any left off the final list.

In the Discussion:
* First Man
* Mary Poppins Returns
* Vice

 About: All three of these have a shot, but they're far from safe bets. Damien Chazelle is still a respected filmmaker, but "First Man" seems to be fading a bit as award season moves forward. "Vice," too, has some good elements, and could still be a player in the acting categories, but might not get an overall film recognition. And "Mary Poppins Returns" hasn't drawn the same buzz as the first film, though Emily Blunt still seems to be drawing good buzz. It wouldn't be a shock to see these films make the final cut, but it also wouldn't be surprising to see them left off the list.

My Wish List:
* A Quiet Place
* Won't You Be My Neighbor
* Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

 About: "Won't You Be My Neighbor" will certainly be in the Documentary race, and is a likely winner there, but I'd like to have it in the Best Picture race, too. "Spider-Man" is likely to the Best Animated Feature, but it was so good I would love to see it get a little more run, too. And I loved "A Quiet Place." It was one of my favorite films of 2018, so I would love to see it get a little recognition. But I don't think any are likely for the Best Picture race.

Final Predictions:
* Roma
* Green Book
* Bohemian Rhapsody
* A Star is Born
* Black Panther
* The Favourite
* BlacKkKlansman
* If Beale Street Could Talk

 About: In this new format for Best Picture, you could have as many as 10 Best Picture Nominees. You have to have at least five. It's tempting each year to project a full 10, and most years we get nine or 10, but this year I'm not sure. There seem to be eight pretty clear choices, and the others have some questions. It's tempting to add to the group, but I think we may end up with just eight getting the votes needed to make the final field. We'll know Tuesday, but for now that's what I'm guessing.

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