Divisional Round Picks

I was oh so close to a perfect Wild Card Weekend. The Colts, Chargers and Cowboys had all won, and the Bears were lining up for a field goal that would help them do the same. Then a lineman tipped Cody Parkey's ball, which hit the crossbar, and I was sunk.

So I went 3-1 the first weekend, but my quest to keep getting it right continues. And if I end up 10-1 I'm sure I'll spend time thinking about that field goal. But that's a February problem.

For now we have the Divisional Round. Three of the four winners the first weekend were lower seeds, but I don't think that's going to be the case this weekend. On to the Picks.

Saturday Games
No. 6 Colts at No. 1 Chiefs
About: The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL Playoffs, and they have a great offense and an up-and-coming defense. That's a good formula for the Chiefs, the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have seen their defense get more pieces back, but all season this team has been about the offense. There's also something to consider in the fact that Andy Reid teams, particularly since he came to Kansas City, have struggled in the playoffs. In fact, he hasn't won a post-season game since coming to Kansas City. That could continue today. However, I like this Chiefs' offense. Patrick Mahomes is likely a strong candidate for NFL MVP, throwing for more than 5,000 yards and 50 TDs this season. I think this game will have plenty of offense, but I also think the top seed gets it done.
The Pick: Chiefs 31, Colts 30

No. 4 Cowboys at No. 2 Rams
About: This is another matchup of two strong offenses and opportunistic defenses. The Rams were an offensive force for most of the season, but with Aaron Donald surging on defense, they make just enough plays to make things happen. That makes them dangerous, particularly at home. For the Cowboys, they have Ezekiel Elliott, and since trading for Amari Cooper mid-season they've had a stronger passing game. They also have improved on defense, holding the Saints to just 10 points in a mid-season win. But that was at home, where they are a little better. Sure, the Rams were upset at home in their first playoff game last season by Atlanta, but I think they've grown since then. I like their chances here, especially with a healthy Todd Gurley.
The Pick: Rams 31, Cowboys 24

Sunday Games:
No. 5 Chargers at No. 2 Patriots
About: How do you pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the Divisional Round? They are 11-1 in this round at home all time. That's convincing. Philip Rivers is also 0-7 in New England, which isn't promising. It's a West Coast team traveling East and it's going to be cold and perhaps snowy. Everything is lining up for the Patriots. EXCEPT, this feels like a different Chargers team. They are 8-1 on the road, including beating the Ravens in the playoffs last week. And they were tied for the best record in the AFC. And these Patriots haven't looked quite as good. It feels like the changing of the guard is beginning in the AFC, and I think it continues with these Chargers.
The Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 21

No. 6 Eagles at No. 1 Saints
About: Nick Foles just keeps doing it. He was an under dog all of 2017, and he won the Super Bowl and was Super Bowl MVP. And he was an under dog last week, and the Eagles beat the Bears to advance. Now he's an under dog again. And it's tempting to pick the Eagles, as they seem to be a team of destiny. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they won. However, I have picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl since August, and I'm not abandoning that pick now. I believe in Drew Brees, and I think it's the Saints' year.
The Pick: Saints 31, Eagles 24