Fantasy Movie League: Glass to dominate holiday weekend


We’ve reached the first long weekend of 2019. Monday is the observance of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s birthday, and that means people will be off from work and school, giving the Box Office an extra day. But we’ll look at all that means in a moment.

First we need to talk about last week. Aquaman was supposed to top the Box Office, but I thought The Upside presented potential value and was a better anchor. I paired four screens of that with Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse, and they were the top two films in terms of value. The Upside was, in fact, the Best Value. But the Perfect Cineplex had five of The Upside, one of Vice, and two empty screens. Even with the penalty, the bonuses carried that option to a finish $12 million better than mine. But I was close, and I was on the right track. A few times now the perfect option has included empty screens. That’s always a risk as you take a $2 million penalty for empty screens. I’m usually averse to going that route, but it’s worth considering of late.

This week there is only two new movies, Glass and Dragon Ball Super: Broly, but we’re getting the return of daily scoring, sort of. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office

There are only a couple new releases, but the biggest by far is Glass. This film, from M. Night Shyamalan, is a sequel to Unbreakable and Split, and the first event film of the year. That doesn’t mean everyone has received it well. It currently boasts a 35 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t great but probably won’t hurt its opening weekend. Box Office Pro calls for $59.4 million over the four-day weekend, while Box Office Report calls for $57 million. Given that it should be so much bigger than any other film, Fantasy Movie League has split it into daily scoring, but not in the way you’d expect. It’s paired in two options — Friday-Saturday and Sunday-Monday. The first option is $586 FML Bucks and projected at $46.4 million while the second is $336 FML Bucks and projected at $25.7 million. Those figures combined are more than $70 million, much higher than the projections from the others. So it’s worth considering where the film really lands.
The only other new release is Dragon Ball Super: Broly, an animated film from the Dragon Ball Z world. The film boasts an 83 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’s well done. But it’s not projected as a huge opening. It’s priced at $87 FML Bucks and Fantasy Movie League projects $5.6 million. Box Office Report projects $6.3 million, so it could have some low-end appeal.

The Search for the Best Value

Last week, The Upside surprised everyone and exploded to the top of the Box Office. It has also continued to draw strong crowds in the week since, despite poor reviews. It has a solid audience score, which means folks are enjoying it. That could give it a slightly longer shelf life. It’s priced at $212 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it at $15.4 million. Box Office Pro calls for $16.3 million and Box Office Report calls for $18.5, so it could again have value. Especially considering the disparity in the Glass projections.

This Week’s Lineup

I’m sticking with The Upside for one more week.

The Upside x3
A Dog’s Way Home
The Mule x4

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