Fantasy Movie League: Robots versus Dragons and Legos


We’ve reached the last weekend in February, and it’s Oscars Weekend, too. That may have an impact on the lower end of the Box Office competition as folks try to make sure they’ve seen all the nominees before the big show on Sunday night.

Last week, it was hard to gauge what would be a success. I bet on Valentine’s Day and Isn’t It Romantic, but it was Alita: Battle Angel that seemed to have more critical fans and made a big splash at the Box Office. Needless to say my Cineplex was well off the mark, but better than those that bet on Happy Death Day 2U.

This week we have three more wide releases, joining a flood of films that have opened in the last two weeks and all the Best Picture nominees still out there. That makes a crowded field yet again, so you have to be careful what you bet on to win. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is the animated film How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, the third film in the series and the most expensive option in the game at $664. It also boasts an impressive 93 percent critical score, indicating it will deliver on its promise, too. The film is projected at $44.7 million by Fantasy Movie League, easily in first place. And they’re actually the lowest. Box Office Report sees $46 million and Box Office Pro calls for $47 million. That makes it tough to pass up as an anchor.
The next wide release is Fighting With My Family. It’s priced at $167 FML Bucks and boasts a 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It has a strong cast, including The Rock, and is based on a true story. Fantasy Movie League projects $10.8 million, but they’re the highest. Box Office Report calls for $8 million while Box Office Pro calls for $7.5 million. Both see it in fifth place. That makes it a stay away for me.
The final new release is Tim Tebow’s Run the Race, a faith-based film. It doesn’t have a score on Rotten Tomatoes, but I’d wager it will be low and that won’t matter to the target audience. It’s priced at $55 FML Bucks, so it’s a low-end filler option. But is it worth it? Fantasy Movie League projects $2.2 million, while Box Office Report projects $2.9 million. If it’s on the high end, it could provide some decent value at the bottom of the Cineplex.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Alita was the Best Value, and opened pretty strong with $28.5 million and first place. But it wasn’t a great weekend overall for the Box Office, and it’s a question if Alita will hold its value. The film didn’t have a great critical score, but it does have a 94 percent audience score, which means it could thrive on good word-of-mouth. It costs $232 FML Bucks, second most in the game, and is projected at $12.9 million by Fantasy Movie League. But Box Office Report calls for $16 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $14 million. If it hit the high end of projections it might be good enough as an anchor, but that’s a big if.

The Lego Movie 2 is still going strong, and priced at $157 FML Bucks it could present value. It’s projected at $11.8 million on Fantasy Movie League and Box Office Pro sees $11.7 million. Box Office Report sees only $11 million, but the consistency there makes it a better bet than Fighting With My Family. On the lower end, it is Oscar week. Films like Green Book and Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse could get a boost.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m not betting against How to Train Your Dragon this week.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Happy Death Day 2U x5
Glass
Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

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