Fantasy Movie League: Romance and animation dominate the Box Office


Last weekend was a rough one, not just for the Box Office but for those trying to make predictions. And with a four-day weekend and a trio of new releases, this could be even harder to predict. But more on that in a moment.

Last week it seemed like The Lego Movie 2 was the biggest film and best anchor. It was at the top of the Box Office, but it wasn’t close to a great value as it missed projections. So, too, did What Men Want, but it was a better anchor when paired with The Upside, which returned the best value. It was a mediocre weekend at the Box Office, and when that happens it’s even harder to hit the right lineup. But I think I can do better.

This weekend we have Valentine’s Day (which is today, but dates will continue to spill over into the weekend) and President’s Day, giving folks a long holiday. In addition, two of our new releases opened Wednesday, and one opened Thursday, giving them all a jump start on the holiday and making it tougher to handicap. Nevertheless, we’ll persist with a fearless prediction. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office

The biggest new release of the weekend is arguably Happy Death Day 2U, the sequel to the Groundhog Day-esque horror film. The first one was a pleasant surprise, and had a strong run at the Box Office. This sequel is back just in time for the holiday weekend, and figures to do well. It has a built in audience, and these kind of movies — as I’ve noted before — always tend to make money. But how much money? The film boasts a fine, but not great, 63 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and it opened on Wednesday, giving it a two-day run prior to the official start of the competition. It costs $307 FML Bucks, second most in the game, and Fantasy Movie League sees it as a strong second place film with $22 million. But they’re the highest, and this is a week where the projections vary widely. Box Office Pro also sees it in second, but with only $18 million, while Box Office Report sees third place and $17.5 million. All that makes it a tough sell as a value.
The next biggest opening is Alita: Battle Angel, the CGI heavy action film from director Robert Rodriguez and producer James Cameron. It boasts big names in front of and behind the camera, but it hasn’t seemed to generate a lot of buzz. It has a middling 60 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and might not be the kind of film that brings in the big audience. It’s priced at $276 FML Bucks, third most, and Fantasy Movie League projects $19.7 million and a third place finish. Box Office Pro also sees third place, with $16.7 million, while Box Office Report sees second place with $22.5 million. That is the kind of wild variance that makes Alita a big swing.
The final new wide release is Isn’t It Romantic, a PG-13 romantic comedy starring Rebel Wilson that is itself a send up of romantic comedies. This is the perfect weekend for the film, which opened February 13, but it faces some fierce competition in What Men Want and other films aiming at the female demographic. The film is the best reviewed of the new releases, with a 68 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and at $207 FML Bucks is the cheapest of the new releases. Fantasy Movie League sees $14.3 million, about on par with What Men Want. However, they’re the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $15 million and Box Office Report sees $17 million. That could give it some sneaky value.
The final new entry in the game is Peter Jackson’s documentary They Shall Not Grow Old. It’s been in release for a few weeks, and costs just $29 FML Bucks. It’s projected at less than $2 million, making it low-end filler.

The Search for the Best Value

The Lego Movie 2 is again expected to capture the top spot at the Box Office, but does that make it a good anchor. It’s the most expensive option at $405 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $27.8 million. But Box Office Pro sees $22.5 million, while Box Office Report sees $27 million. The film under-performed last week, and now faces more varied competition. I don’t see it as a great choice at anchor.

In looking at other options, there isn’t a clear value that stands out. Box Office Pro is generally lower on all the Box Office projections this weekend than Fantasy Movie League, while Box Office Report is more bullish on Cold Pursuit and Glass, two male-focused action films that could provide value if the higher projections hit.

This Week’s Lineup

Romantic comedies are the things to see this time of year, and I think Isn’t It Romantic could return better value as an anchor, so I’m taking my shot.

Isn’t It Romantic x4
Glass x2
Bohemian Rhapsody x2

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