Fantasy Movie League: Dumbo flies in


Last week, Jordan Peele delivered his highly anticipated follow up Us, and it didn’t disappoint. It was already projected to win the week at the Box Office, and it did, but it also bested projections to provide Best Value.

I correctly figured that Us was the anchor needed to try and win the week, but I missed on Five Feet Apart continuing to hold up well. The teen romance has a built-in genre audience and was a bit of good counter-programming, so those that went all in on horror and romance, two teen staples, were the big winners of the week. I went in another direction and, well, came up short. But no time to dwell on what’s past.

This week Us is still kicking around, and Captain Marvel is still humming along. In addition we have plenty of smaller films, like Five Feet Apart, that have genre appeal. Meanwhile Disney launches the first of three re-makes of animated classics in 2019 with Dumbo, from director Tim Burton. It figures to be atop the Box Office, but what will that mean? Let’s find out. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

There are four new entries to the game, the biggest of which is our friend Dumbo. The film boasts an impressive cast, and Burton has done some good adaptations, including Alice in Wonderland for Disney. But Dumbo clocks in with just a 54 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t great. The film is by far the most expensive in the game at $700 FML Bucks, and is projected atop the Box Office. But while Fantasy Movie League sees $65.6 million, they are the most optimistic. Box Office Pro goes at $60 million, while Box Office Report projects just $50 million. That, to me, says Dumbo is a bad bet as an anchor.
The next biggest release is Hotel Mumbai, a docudrama covering the real life terrorist attack. The film boasts a decent 73 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but isn’t expected to have huge traction. It’s just $35 FML bucks and projected at $3.6 million by Fantasy Movie League. They are the highest, with Box Office Pro not offering a projection due to a lack of screen count and Box Office Report calling for $2.8 million. That’s a stay away for me.
The next biggest release is The Beach Bum, the Harmony Korine film starring Matthew McConaughey. It’s an indie film that likely has a somewhat small audience, and it boasts just a 50 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s $18 FML bucks and projected at $1.6 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees $2.3 million, and Box Office Report sees $1.7 million, so it could provide low-end value.
The final new release is Unplanned, a Christian film meant to pitch the Pro Life position. It doesn’t have a rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but I’d assume it to be low. The film costs $50 FML bucks, but it’s projected at $1.8 million by Fantasy Movie League. It’s projected at $2.8 million on Box Office Pro and $4.3 million by Box Office Report, so it could return a value.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week’s top film was Us, and it is again one that could return value. It’s $447 FML Bucks, but projected at $38.4 million by Fantasy Movie League. However, Box Office Pro sees $39.8 million and Box Office Report sees $40 million. So it could return a value, and it’s a film that bested projections last week, as Get Out did during its run. Captain Marvel is also just $216 FML Bucks, and projected right around $20 million. Both those seem like more solid anchor choices than Dumbo given its potential variance and cost.

This Week’s Lineup:

I feel like Us, Unplanned and The Beach Bum have the best shot at value, so I’m playing them all.

Us
Captain Marvel x2
Unplanned
The Beach Bum x3
Gloria Bell

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