Fantasy Movie League: A Quiet Holiday Weekend


Call it the calm before the storm — or is that the calm before The Avengers. Either way, this figures to be a slow weekend. Between Easter and a slate of uninspiring new releases, the projections aren’t that high. And yet, with five new films in the game, the pool of movies that are relevant is so huge, that splits the pie even more. But more on the newbies in a minute.

Last week I thought Little offered some value as an anchor and After would be strong value candidate. Instead, Shazam! held up better than expected as a good anchor, and Unplanned was the Best Value. So my Cineplex was left out in the cold.

With this big, spread out weeks, it’s all about nailing the value. It didn’t happen for me last week, but this is a new week. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. And if you’d like to play against TMR himself, Matthew Berry, you have a bit of time left to sign up HERE for this special league competition. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office

The biggest new release is the low-budget horror film The Curse of La Llorona, the lone nationwide release getting a Friday release. It’s a horror film, and those tend to do fairly well no matter the time of year. And it doesn’t take much for them to turn a profit. This one boasts a pitiful 30 percent critical score, but that won’t dissuade hardcore fans. It’s the most expensive in the game at $336 FML Bucks and Fantasy Movie League projects it in first place with $22.1 million. Box Office Pro sees second place and only $16.9 million, while Box Office Report sees it in the top spot with just $21 million. Either way, this feels like a poor anchor option.
The next biggest release is the faith-based film Breakthrough, which opened Wednesday. It boasts a middling 63 percent critical score (though 79 percent liked it), but I doubt that will matter to the core audience, especially on Easter weekend. The film is $218 FML Bucks, second most, and Fantasy Movie League projects $16.9 million and second place. Box Office Pro sees $13 million and third place, while Box Office Report sees third place with just $12 million. There is no value to be found here.
The next biggest new release is the Disney Nature offering Penguins, which was also released on Wednesday. It’s $67 FML Bucks and projected at $3.5 million, despite a sterling 89 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. Box Office Pro sees $4.5 million and Box Office Report sees $4 million, so it could be some lower end value.
The next new offering is Amazing Grace, the documentary of the famous performance from Aretha Franklin. It boasts an impressive 98 percent critical score, but isn’t likely to be a Box Office powerhouse. It’s $28 FML Bucks and projected less than a million, making it little more than low-end filler.
The final new entry is the Bollywood film Kalank. It’s $30 FML Bucks and projected at about $1.6 million. That could make it a better low-end value than Amazing Grace.

The Search for the Best Value

Shazam! is arguably still the biggest title in theaters that could make waves. At $217 FML Bucks, it’s the third most expensive. Fantasy Movie League sees just $14 million, but Box Office Pro sees it in first with $17.5 million and Box Office Report sees $16.2 million. The positive word of mouth and the lack of great competition makes me think it’s the anchor to provide some good value.

This Week’s Lineup

I’m feeling a heavy dose of Shazam! and Penguins.

Shazam! x3
Penguins x5

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