Fantasy Movie League: John Wick is Back!

For the first time since late April, Avengers: Endgame isn’t predicted to dominate the Box Office. That’s thanks to a little hero named John Wick, who is about to go for his third adventure. But more on that and the new movies of the week in a minute. First, a minute on last week’s contest.

Avengers was still projected atop the Box Office, but it was Pokemon Detective Pikachu that was in daily scoring. And Pikachu joined a host of other films that were new at the Box Office. I leaned into a Saturday play, adding Sunday and the potential for value from Long Shot and Tolkien. Turns out, the best value was The Intruder, and the best Pikachu option was Friday. So I ended up almost $30 million off the pace. Hopefully this week will be better.

John Wick Chapter 3 leads the new releases, and figures to lead the Box Office. There are three new films again this week, but nothing in Daily Scoring. So it’s about finding the right anchor, and the right shot at value. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

John Wick Chapter 3 is not only expected to top the Box Office, it’s been a hit with critics. This is a sharp deviation from last week, when all the new movies bombed with critics, and subsequently bombed with audiences. By now we know what John Wick is as a franchise, and this third installment promises more of the same in a good way. It’s currently got a 92 percent critical score, too, which helps. It’s the most expensive option at $538 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it in first at $37.8 million. But they’re the lowest by far. Box Office Report sees $47.5 million and Box Office Pro goes as high as $52.5 million. This could be the rare anchor — and most costly option — that’s also the Best Value.

The next biggest new release is A Dog’s Journey, itself a sequel to A Dog’s Purpose. This one is another sloppy family tale about a re-incarnating dog. Dennis Quaid reprises his role, but this one is more focused on his granddaughter. Josh Gad again provides the voice of the dog. This one is $173 FML Bucks and projected in fourth place with $12.8 million. Box Office Report sees $11.8 million, but Box Office Pro only goes to $9 million. This seems like a rough bet for value.

The final new release is The Sun is Also a Star, the romance film that provides a little counter-balance at the Box Office. This will likely appeal to couples as a date movie, and teens in general. But it boasts a middling 54 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t promising. It’s just $96 FML Bucks and projected at $5.5 million. Box Office Report sees $5.2 million and Box Office Pro sees $6 million, so this is just a low-end filler option.

The Search for the Best Value

After dominating for three weeks, Avengers: Endgame figures to slide back to second place. It’s just $378 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it just over $28 million. Box Office Pro goes to $36 million and Box Office Report goes to $30 million, but given its price and the projections for John Wick, it doesn’t feel like a great value. Maybe doubling up helps as an anchor, but if it’s on the low-end of projections that could hurt as much as help, and leaves little money to play with.

Most of the other projections on films seem in line with each other, too, so it’s hard to spot any that jump out as a value unless you have a strong gut feeling something is being overlooked.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m thinking John Wick is the best anchor and best value.

John Wick Chapter 3

The Sun is Also A Star x3

Long Shot x3

Ugly Dolls

That’s it for this week. Disagree, have a comment, want to share your process with the world?