Fantasy Movie League: The Lion King is Here!


Last weekend went primarily as expected in terms of new releases in that neither did much. In fact, Stuber radically underperformed. Meanwhile Spider-Man continued to hold the top spot. This weekend that will change as a new king enters the race, but more on that in a minute.

Last week I thought Toy Story 4 at its price point would make a better anchor, playing it across three screens. I also thought Annabelle Home Coming would hold some value. Turned out the best value was Avengers: End Game, and Spider-Man paired with Toy Story 4 was the right anchor combination. So I was about $12 million off the pace. 

This week is more straight forward — The Lion King figures to dominate, but what will help get the best value for your Cineplex? That’s a question we’re here to answer. 

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new opening is The Lion King, a “live-action” re-make of the animated classic. It’s had some mixed reviews, with critics praising the visuals while noting that it doesn’t feel like a necessary sequel. That’s probably, in part, why it boasts just a 57 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. It should, however, easily dominate the weekend Box Office. Box Office Pro sees $185 million, while Box Office Report sees $181 million. 

For its part, Fantasy Movie League split The Lion King into daily scoring. Friday is the most expensive at $481, with Saturday at $399 and Sunday at $341. And that aligns with their projections, going with $71.9 million Friday, $60.2 million Saturday and $50.6 million Sunday. That’s a total of $182.7 million, putting it squarely in line with the other sites. You’ll want some Lion King in your Cineplex, but it’s a question of which day returns max value.
The only other new release is The Art of Self Defense, the drama/comedy starring Jesse Eisenberg. The film boasts a pretty outstanding 85 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but it hasn’t had much of a marketing campaign. It’s also not likely to make a huge dent in any of the top films this week, hence its mere $18 price on Fantasy Movie League. Fantasy Movie League projects $2.1 million, while Box Office Report projects just $1.4 million. That feels like a stay away.

The Search for the Best Value:

Spider-Man is rolling into Week 3 and not only does it face competition, it’s facing a film that will likely tread on much the same demographic in The Lion King. It’s the fourth most costly option at $177, behind the three Lion King options, and is projected in second with a distant $22.4 million. Box Office Pro goes lower with $21.3 million and Box Office Report goes with $20.5 million. That makes it a tough bet for value. Toy Story 4 is also out there, but it will also see its target audience impacted by The Lion King. It is the fifth most costly option at $126 FML Bucks, and projected at $14.1 million. Box Office Pro sees $12.9 million and Box Office Report sees $13.3 million. Neither film looks like it will return good value based on the projections and relative cost.

Looking at the slate of films below Lion King, there isn’t anything that stands out as returning value based on projections. It’s a week where you have to go with your gut and hope for the best.

This Week’s Lineup:

I like The Lion King for an anchor, and I think Crawl is the right kind of counter-programming to capture a different kind of audience.

Lion King (Sat)
Lion King (Sun)
Crawl x6

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