Fantasy Movie League: Tarantino is back!


Last week The Lion King roared into Theaters and, as expected, dominated the top spot at the Box Office. But being in daily scoring, it didn’t totally dominate Fantasy Movie League, though you needed at least a piece of it to be atop the rankings.

I thought the Saturday-Sunday combo would be good, along with a steady dose of Crawl, which seemed like good counter-programming. Instead, it was Yesterday (also counter-programming) that was the Best Value, and it was the Friday-Sunday option that worked best as an anchor. So I ended up about $20 million off the pace with bonuses factored in. Hopefully this week will be better.

There are two new entries to the game this week, plus The Lion King remains in Daily Scoring. That means it’s critical to find the right anchor to win the week. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new opening is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the latest from director Quentin Tarantino. This is the week between blockbusters, as The Lion King opened last Friday and Hobbs and Shaw comes next Friday. Tarantino’s latest is the lone new wide release, and it’s been received pretty well by critics with an 89 percent critical score. He has a built in audience, and they’ll likely turn out for this one. But at 161 minutes, it’s a pretty long commitment for the summer. It’s the most expensive option at $545 FML Bucks (Lion King is in daily scoring), and it’s projected at $38.7 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees $40 million, while Box Office Report sees $39 million. At its price point, it could be a tough call at anchor.
The only other new entry in the game is the limited release The Farewell, which expands to more theaters this weekend but isn’t playing nationwide. It has gotten rave reviews, and currently sits at 100 percent critical score and 92 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s pretty impressive. It’s just $33 FML Bucks, but projected at just $2.4 million. Box Office Report sees about the same, so it’s mostly a low-end filler.

The Search for the Best Value:

The Lion King dominated last week and figures to do the same in its second week in release. Box Office Pro sees $90 million while Box Office Report see $93 million, both placing it well into first place. But the daily scoring set up provides more of a wrinkle for Fantasy Movie League. It’s not just about it being in first, it’s about which day provides value. Last week Friday was the best performer, which makes sense when it adds Thursday preview screenings on opening weekends. But typically Saturday and Sunday are better performers in subsequent weekends, and the pricing reflects that. Saturday is $440 FML Bucks, with Sunday at $370 and Friday at $334. The projections also align with that, with Saturday going at $33.9 million, Sunday at $26.8 million and Friday at $25.8 million. All together that’s a projection of $86.5 million, below the projections of the other sites. So the value could well be there, but which day returns the most of it?

On the low end, while The Farewell could offer some appeal as a filler, I kind of like Stuber, which is just $23 FML Bucks and projected at $1.9 million. But Box Office Report sees $2.2 million, meaning it could return a good value. The Best Value the past few weeks has been the right low-end pick that exceeded its projections. This week, that could be Stuber in just its third week in release.

This Week’s Lineup:

I like the non-Saturday options for The Lion King this week.

Lion King (SUN)
Lion King (FRI)
Spider-Man Far From Home
Stuber x5

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