Player Profile: DeVante Parker

During the 2015 draft the Miami Dolphins made a first round splash when they grabbed DeVante Parker with the 14th overall pick. Since then, fans and fantasy players have eagerly awaited his breakout season.

As he prepares to enter year five, there are probably few true believers left. And that’s because in four years, Parker has produced just 163 receptions for 2,217 yards and nine TDs. That’s an average of about 550 yards and two TDs a season, a far cry from what fans had hoped to see.

On the last year of his rookie deal, needing to prove something to get paid next off-season, the question is if this will finally be the year Parker produces for fans. Let’s weigh the evidence.

The Case for DeVante Parker

It’s hard for people to quit Parker because of his talent and opportunity, and we’ve seen flashes of it. In his rookie year, Parker caught 26 passes for 494 yards and three TDs, averaging 19 yards a reception. He followed that up with 56–744–4 as a second year pro but slipped to 57–670–1 despite starting 12 games in year three. Last year, Parker was marred by injuries and irrelevance. He played in only 11 games, starting just seven. And he had his worst season to date, posting a line of 24–309–1. That would naturally lead folks to wonder if this is the end. And yet, there’s some hope coming into 2019. That hope springs from the new addition and his lack of competition. Let’s look at both those ideas.

First, it’s about the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. While the Dolphins brought in Josh Rosen, too, and either could be the starter, it’s Fitzpatrick that sparks the interest of fans. And why not? In just seven games as a starter for the Bucs in 2018, he produced 2,366 yards and 17 TDs. In 16 games, Dolphins QBs produced just 3,306 yards and 26TDs total. With the Dolphins figuring to be behind plenty in 2019, if Fitzpatrick is in the game he’ll likely be slinging. And even when a team isn’t winning, Fitzpatrick slinging can be gold for fantasy owners.

The first four weeks of 2018, though the team went 2–2, the Bucs saw Fitzpatrick throw for more than 400 yards three weeks in a row to start the season. And the Buccaneers receivers — Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and OJ Howard — were the beneficiaries. And that’s what makes Parker so appealing with Fitzpatrick on a team that will likely need to throw. We’ve seen him be a deep threat before, and the hope is that a quarterback like Fitzpatrick can unlock that again.

The other argument for Parker is the relative lack of competition. The Dolphins didn’t make much of a splash this off-season. If anything, they removed competition when Danny Amendola went to the Lions. The Dolphins added rookie Preston Williams, and have Brice Butler, Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford there to compete. But really, Parker’s competition comes down to Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills.

Wilson, the former Chiefs product, signed a three-year, $24 million deal last off-season. And he looked decent before getting hurt and missing the second half of the season. In seven games, including three starts, Wilson grabbed 26 passes for 391 yards and four TDs. Stills, meanwhile, is the Dolphins highest paid receiver. He’s in the middle of a four-year, $32 million deal he signed in the 2017 off-season. Known as a home-run hitter, he started 15 games in 2018 for the Dolphins but grabbed just 37 passes for 553 yards and six TDs on 64 targets. While his game could arguably benefit the most from a gunslinger like Fitzpatrick, he hasn’t been a big producer in Miami.

So while Wilson and Stills are in the mix, neither presents a clear threat to Parker as THE dominant receiver in Miami. And Fitzpatrick’s work with the Buccaneers last season showed he can provide enough bang to make three to four guys viable fantasy targets in a week, especially if he’s forced to throw the ball. That’s likely to be the case in Miami.

Betting on Parker

If you read the above section, you have seen the opportunity that presents itself for Parker in 2019. But it’s hard to ignore his stats. Even in his best season, he only accounted for 57 receptions. And that was playing in 15 games, starting 12. And last year, bothered by injuries and inefficiency, he had his worst season as a pro. So why should we expect things to suddenly change?

It’s arguable he’ll have the best passer of his career this season — though if Rosen gets the job we might have to re-think our optimism for any Dolphins receiver. But the biggest plus for Parker is that he’s no longer viewed as a top asset. His current ADP is WR69 in Standard, WR68 in .5 PPR and WR61 in PPR. That means, in a 10 or 12-team league, he’s going as a WR6. His average ADP is 184–192. In that range, you’re grabbing depth and lottery tickets. Parker was a No. 1 pick for a reason, and with little competition and the potential to be in an offense looking to throw plenty, there are worse fliers out there. I’m not saying Parker is going to finally deliver on his potential, but if you could grab a guy that gets 65–70 receptions for 650–800 yards and six TDs at the end of your draft, isn’t it worth the risk?