Player Profile: Ronald Jones

It would be hard to find a rookie that busted harder in 2018 than Ronald Jones. Taken in the second round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and facing no real competition, most expected Jones to run wild in 2018. But he didn’t.

Jones appeared in just nine games, rushing 23 times for 44 yards and a TD, catching seven passes for 33 yards. That would be a poor output for one game, let alone an entire season. And yet, hope springs eternal for Jones once again, but should you buy into the hype?

Let’s weight the evidence.

A College Star

The reason Jones went in the second round of the 2018 draft is because of his production at USC. Jones played three years for the Trojans and posted 3,619 career yards. He never had a season with fewer than 150 carries, and his 987 yards on 153 carries as a Freshmen was his lowest output. As a sophomore he ran for 1,082 yards and went for 1,550 yards on 261 carries as a junior before coming out in the draft. In addition, he produced 39 rushing TDs, and never averaged worse than 5.9 yards per carry.

But if there was a weakness in his game, it appeared to be his receiving numbers. Jones recorded just 32 receptions in three years at USC, with his most coming his junior year where he grabbed just 14 for 187 and a touchdown in 13 games. And it was his inability as a receiver that seemed to be widely reported early in his first camp with the Buccaneers. In addition, there didn’t seem to be a lot of elusiveness or pop, and Jones became mostly an afterthought during his rookie season, barely averaging 1.9 yards per carry.

So why the optimism coming into his second season?

The situation in Tampa Bay

Gone is previous head coach and offensive guru Dirk Koetter, who saw his team produce a middling 1,523 yards rushing as a team in 2018. And in his place comes Bruce Arians, a noted offensive guru who many hope will make the most of the Buccaneers’ offense, led by quarterback Jameis Winston and a solid receiving corps that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and tight end O.J. Howard. But it’s what Arians did in Arizona with David Johnson that has fans optimistic about Jones’ sophomore season in the NFL.

In 2016, Johnson’s last full season under Arians in the desert, the production wasn’t just good, it was outstanding. He carried 293 times for 1,239 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. But Johnson wasn’t just a runner in the Cardinals’ offense, he also saw 120 targets, catching 80 passes for 879 yards and four TDs. That made him one of the best players in fantasy, and was a reason he was a near No. 1 pick the following season. Hence some of the optimism for Jones, who was an elusive and productive runner while at USC.

The other reason for optimism is his relative lack of competition. That the Bucs didn’t grab anyone of note in free agency, and didn’t add to their running back group in the draft, seemed to be a vote of confidence for Jones, who is reportedly looking better this off-season. And a big part of that is that he doesn’t face much competition on the roster.

When Jones failed to claim the job in 2018, the primary work went to Peyton Barber, and he remains Jones’ primary competition in 2019. But it’s not like Barber lit the world on fire. The third-year pro started all 16 games, rushing for 871 yards and five TDs on 234 carries. He also added 20 receptions for 92 yards and a TD. While he was the starter in Tampa, his lack of production and middling 3.7 yards per carry average combined with the draft capital invested in Jones means his hold on a starting job is tenuous.

Beyond Barber, the Bucs only have two RBs of note on the roster. One is Andre Ellington, who played with Arians in Arizona and has battled injuries most of his career. He’s also more of a receiving back, which could be the niche role he plays in Tampa. And the only other back added was undrafted free agent Bruce Anderson, who played for North Dakota State. In four years he produced 2,896 yards and 24 TDs, but was better as a junior than a senior. He could add some pop, and with this backfield you never know, but he feels like more of a long-shot to lead the Tampa Bay rushing attack.

Where to take Jones

Jones did nothing to inspire confidence as a rookie, and it’s understandable that many dynasty owners gave up on him early. It’s also understandable that many fantasy owners are leery of getting fooled again in 2019. But given the new coach and the relative lack of competition, if not now, when for Jones? Hence why he’s once again the talk of NFL circles.

Currently, Jones boasts a PPR ADP of 98 overall, RB39. That means that while there’s hope he can finally deliver, no one is trusting him as a starter. And that feels about right. In a 12-team league, that ADP makes him an RB4 on a roster. The upshot is that Jones could end up being a steal, especially if the new staff can get him more involved as a receiver. At worst, it’s another lost season for Jones and you can move on during the regular season. Given the opportunity and potential, Jones feels like he’s worth the gamble at that draft position.