Fantasy Movie League: A Box Office Crowd


Last week began a stretch of incredibly busy weeks at the Box Office. There were five new films, all competing with each other. And yet it was the hold over Hobbs & Shaw that topped the Box Office. This week we have five more newbies, two of which opened on Wednesday, and all are vying for their piece of the pie. More on that in a minute.

Last weekend Hobbs & Shaw was the top money earner, but it was Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark that was the Best Value. I correctly guessed that, and put it on four screens, as did the Perfect Cineplex. But my filler was a bit different and I ended up just under $6 million below the Perfect Cineplex levels. When you get a $5 million bonus for being perfect, that different really stings.

This week, with more new options, it’s about value. Which one will produce the return on investment needed to get to the top of the heap? Let’s find out. Let’s dive in! As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

There isn’t a lot of separation between new entries, so I’ll go in order of price. The most costly is the horror movie option, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged. This is a sequel of sorts to a movie that I hated, and one for which I still haven’t forgiven Mandy Moore. This sequel is sort of under-the-radar, and lacking big stars. It has a somewhat decent 56 percent critical score, which is disappointing. I loathed the first one so much I will never see this film, and hope it flops. But I doubt others are as committed. It’s the most expensive entry at $202 FML Bucks, and it’s projected at $10.2 million in fifth place. Wait, what? Yes, it seems odd that it carries a high cost and poor projection. Box Office Pro sees $11.7 million, but still fifth place, while Box Office Report sees $11 million, still in fifth place. So not a lot of value there.
The next most expensive is Angry Birds 2, which comes it at $201 FML Bucks. It’s a sequel, but it got a 71 percent critical score which ain’t bad. It also opened on Wednesday, which makes gauging the actual weekend a bit tough. Fantasy Movie League sees $17.2 million and first place. Box Office Pro sees $13.8 million and second place, and Box Office Report sees $14 million and second place. So it’s got better value than 47 Meters Down, but perhaps not the best value.
Next most is the comedy The Good Boys, which is about good kids gone wrong. It’s got hilarious previews and an 81 percent critical score, which is good. It’s $171 FML Bucks, third most among new films. It’s also got some promising projections. While Fantasy Movie League sees $12.9 million and second place, Box Office Pro goes at $15.6 million and Box Office Report sees $16 million, and both see it winning the weekend. That, to me, makes it an extremely good bet as anchor and, possibly, value.
The next new film is Blinded by the Light, the biopic that centers on a love of Bruce Springsteen. It has the best critical score of the newbies with 91 percent (and a 93 percent audience score), but it also opened on Wednesday. So that will take a chunk of its weekend. It is just $77 FML Bucks, and projected at $5.8 million. Box Office Pro and Box Office Report both see about $6 million, so everyone is pretty much in lock step here.
The final new release is Where’d You Go Bernadette, based on a novel and featuring a high profile cast. It’s the cheapest at $74 FML Bucks, and also has the worst reviews with a paltry 40 percent critical score. That could actually hurt a movie like this. Fantasy Movie League sees $5.6 million, but Box Office Pro sees $5.2 million and Box Office Report sees $5.3 million. It feels like a poor bet.

The Search for the Best Value:

The past two weeks it’s been all about Hobbs & Shaw. The film is $174 FML Bucks this week, third most, and that aligns with projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $12.8 million, but Box Office Pro goes as high as $13.7 million while Box Office Report is in at $12.8 million as well. The Lion King is at $143 FML Bucks, and just crossed $1 billion at the Box Office. It’s projected between $11.1 and $11.9 million, so it’s tough to see the good value.

On the low end, Spider-Man Far From Home presented good value last week, and I still like The Farewell, riding great reviews and buzz, to continue to post solid returns against a $22 FML Buck cost.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m all in on The Good Boys this week.

The Good Boys x5
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell x2

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