Fantasy Movie League


After a couple slow weekends at the Box Office, we have four new entries this week including three new wide releases. Those are likely to split the Box Office pool. And in addition, Joker is still going strong and is likely to be the Top Spot at the Box Office yet again. But, the good news, is there is no more daily scoring.

Last week Joker dominated the thinking and was split in daily scoring. As a result, you had to look for the value. I bet on Sunday, placing it on the max of three screens. For most of the weekend I was sweating it out after Joker had a huge opening Friday. But in the end, Sunday out-performed projections and became the Best Value, which worked well for me. But I missed on the complimentary screens and fell just shy of the Perfect Cineplex. Close but no cigar seems to be my lot so far this Fall. Hopefully I can do better moving forward.

This week there are four new movies, and it’s all about the right combination to produce value. Is it Joker? Perhaps, but I’m not sold yet. Let’s weigh the evidence. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is the Will Smith thriller Gemini Man. It’s the most expensive new option at $374, and the second priciest option in the game. But it hasn’t been well received by critics so far, boasting just a woeful 28 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Fantasy Movie League projects it in second at $24.8 million. But they’re the most optimistic. Both Box Office Pro and Box Office Report have it in third place, with Box Office Pro seeing $22.8 million and Box Office Report seeings $21.5 million. So I’d urge caution in thinking this could be gold.
Next up is the new animated version of The Adams Family, which boasts an impressive voice cast including Charlize Theron and Oscar Isaac. It doesn’t have a score on Rotten Tomatoes, but that may not matter. It’s priced at $334 FML Bucks, third most, which aligns with the Fantasy Movie League projection of $21.7 million. But they’re the lowest. Box Office Report sees $29.5 and Box Office Pro sees $28.5, and both see it in second place. There could be strong value here.
The final wide release is Jexi, the new comedy starring Adam Devine and the voice of Rose Byrne. It also is lacking a projection, which is more problematic. It’s just $109 FML Bucks, and projected at $4.2 million. Box Office Report sees just $3.1 million, so this is a stay away to me.
The final new film is Pain and Glory, a new film from Pedro Almodóvar that is in limited release. It is just $11 FML Bucks and projected at just $650,000, so it’s just a low-end dart throw.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Joker produced the big value. This week it is back together as a single option, priced the highest at $671 FML Bucks. And that makes sense given its projections at the top of the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League sees $39.8 million, but they’re the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $43 million and Box Office Report sees $48 million. If Joker is on the high end, or bests projections like last week, it could provide the best value as an anchor.

A couple other films that could provide value are Hustlers and Judy, both of which are lower projections on Fantasy Movie League than Box Office Report. Judy is projected at $3.4 million on Fantasy Movie League and $4 million on Box Office Report. Meanwhile Hustlers is projected at $3.7 on Fantasy Movie League and $4.2 on Box Office Report. That could give either some upside as a lower level pick.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week the value in The Adams Family seems too good to pass up.

The Adams Family x2
Hustlers x4
IT Chapter 2
Ad Astra

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