Fantasy Movie League: The Onslaught Continues


As I mentioned last week, November is busy. Last week there was a handful of new entries, and that will be the case for the rest of the month. This second weekend in November brings four new films entering the game, but more on that in a minute. First, let’s look back at last week.

Terminator: Dark Fate was the most pricey option, and figured to be atop the Box Office. But I correctly surmised it wasn’t a great value, and when it fell below projections it proved that to be true. Harriet, meanwhile, looked like a sure lock for Best Value, and it was. I played it on seven screens with Joker, which was the most popular option. The perfect option was Harriet on all eight screens. Another week of close, but not close enough. We’ll hope to do better next time.

This week there’s four new films, and all of them have positives and negatives. Plus we still have a big crowd likely to split audience loyalty from previous weeks, so it’s all about finding the right combination to create maximum value. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Doctor Sleep, which is based on the Stephen King novel. It boasts Ewan McGreggor in the lead role and is a sequel to one of King’s most popular works, The Shinning. This one figures to draw a crowd, and is priced at $385 FML Bucks, most in the game. It has a 74 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, meaning that critics liked it, too. Fantasy Movie League sees it in first at $24.8 million. Box Office Pro sees $25 million, while Box Office Report sees just $22.5 million. While all see it on top, that spread of predictions makes me think it’s a tough bet for Best Value.
Next up is Last Christmas, a holiday themed film starring Emilia Clarke and Henry Golding that comes from Emma Thompson, who co-stars. It’s also based on George Michael’s music, which is featured in it. Holiday films usually do well, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see folks turn out here. It’s the second most expensive film at $260 FML Bucks, and has a critical score of just 42 percent. I doubt that hurts its chances much. Fantasy Movie League sees it in second with $16.9 million, while Box Office Pro sees second and $16.5 million. Box Office Report sees it in third with just $13 million. That’s something of a red flag in terms of being a value.
Next up is Midway, the re-make of the classic World War II film. This one is timed for Veteran’s Day, and the film from Roland Emmerich boasts a woeful critical score of 37 percent. Ouch! Again, that might not impact this core audience. The film is $213 FML Bucks, fourth most in the game, and Fantasy Movie League projects it in fourth at $13 million. Box Office Pro sees fourth, but just $11.4 million. Meanwhile Box Office Report sees $13.2, but projects it in second place. It’s not the dollar amount, but the potential against other films that might give this one value.
The final new release is Playing With Fire, the kid-friendly film starring John Cena. As with The Rock before him, Cena has managed to move from professional wrestling to establishing a strong Box Office presence. This one is $201 FML Bucks, but has a horrific 20 percent critical score. Parents like to appease their kids, but movies done poorly can still be a tough sell, so buyer beware here. Fantasy Movie League sees $7.9 million, while Box Office Pro sees $8 million and Box Office Report sees $8.2 million. So there are worse values.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Harriet was the Best Value, and it wasn’t particularly close. The film is now $144 FML Bucks, and projected between $7.3 and $7.7 million. It doesn’t stand out as a value, and we’ve often looked at the danger in chasing value. So this isn’t one that I’d be gravitating too right off the bat. Terminator: Dark Fate underwhelmed in week one, but it’s now just $223 FML Bucks, third most, and has projections between $12.8 and $13.2 million. It could return value this week.

A sneaky value could be Maleficent, which is just $150 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League set a projection at $7.2 million, while Box Office Pro sees $7.8 million and Box Office Report goes all the way to $8.7 million.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week is tough. The projections and pricing don’t present obvious value, and as has been the case a lot in recent months, that likely means the Best Value will come from hitting a down line option. I’m betting on Zombieland.

Doctor Sleep
Terminator: Dark Fate
Zombieland Double Tap x6

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