Championship Weekend Picks
On Wild Card weekend I went 3–1, with the pick I felt most secure in being the one that failed. That was the Saints, a team I picked to go to the Super Bowl, falling at home to the Minnesota Vikings.
Wouldn’t you know it, but the Divisional Round went the same way. I went 3–1, but it was the pick I felt most safe in making — the Baltimore Ravens over the Tennessee Titans — that ended up being my lone miss. I thought the Ravens, and their high-powered offense, would move the ball and score points. I was only half right. Lamar Jackson threw for 365 yards and ran for 143 more, but he was plagued by turn overs and inefficiency. The team scored just 12 points at home. And the Titans, with another standout performance from Derrick Henry, were able to prevail.
This week there’s only two games, as we’ve reached the Conference Championship Round. And both these games figure to be close and competitive, and both figure to be battles. There is no pick I feel safe about this weekend, so maybe that means I’ll do better. History is working against me. Last year, I picked the Chiefs and Saints into the Super Bowl, and it was the Rams and Patriots that advanced. Can I do better this year? Who knows, but I can’t do much worse.
On to the picks!
AFC Championship
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
About: The Titans were the last team into the playoffs, literally. The NFC slate of six was set by Week 16, and as we went into the final week of the regular season, it was just the Titans fighting for a spot. And they drummed the Houston Texans at home to get there. Then they beat the New England Patriots in New England in Wild Card round, and dispatched with the Ravens in Baltimore last weekend. So in three weeks, they’ve beaten the division winners for the AFC South, AFC East and AFC North on the road. All that’s left is the AFC West, where they’re headed this week. In the Divisional Round the Chiefs put up 51 points and won going away, but that’s a bit deceptive. The Texans built a 24–0 lead in the second quarter, and for a while it looked grim. Then the Chiefs scored on eight straight possessions, including seven touchdowns in a row, to secure a 20-point win. The Titans are a different team, with a different energy and a better defense. If the Chiefs fall in a hole early against Tennessee — as the Ravens did — they will have trouble imposing their will. With a team like Tennessee that runs and controls the clock, it would seem like the strategy to win would be to push the game to a shoot out. But the Chiefs did that earlier this season, at home. Tyreek Hill had a massive day, Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns, and the Chiefs lost 35–32. That is concerning if you are inclined to pick Kansas City. Both teams have a chance, and this isn’t a great matchup for the Chiefs. Still, I think the Chiefs’ defense has gotten better, and the team is playing better. They rolled off six straight regular season wins following that loss, which dropped them to 6–4. I think the Chiefs get to the Super Bowl this time.
The Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 27
About: The Titans were the last team into the playoffs, literally. The NFC slate of six was set by Week 16, and as we went into the final week of the regular season, it was just the Titans fighting for a spot. And they drummed the Houston Texans at home to get there. Then they beat the New England Patriots in New England in Wild Card round, and dispatched with the Ravens in Baltimore last weekend. So in three weeks, they’ve beaten the division winners for the AFC South, AFC East and AFC North on the road. All that’s left is the AFC West, where they’re headed this week. In the Divisional Round the Chiefs put up 51 points and won going away, but that’s a bit deceptive. The Texans built a 24–0 lead in the second quarter, and for a while it looked grim. Then the Chiefs scored on eight straight possessions, including seven touchdowns in a row, to secure a 20-point win. The Titans are a different team, with a different energy and a better defense. If the Chiefs fall in a hole early against Tennessee — as the Ravens did — they will have trouble imposing their will. With a team like Tennessee that runs and controls the clock, it would seem like the strategy to win would be to push the game to a shoot out. But the Chiefs did that earlier this season, at home. Tyreek Hill had a massive day, Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns, and the Chiefs lost 35–32. That is concerning if you are inclined to pick Kansas City. Both teams have a chance, and this isn’t a great matchup for the Chiefs. Still, I think the Chiefs’ defense has gotten better, and the team is playing better. They rolled off six straight regular season wins following that loss, which dropped them to 6–4. I think the Chiefs get to the Super Bowl this time.
The Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 27
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
About: The top two seeds in the NFC are in the Championship Game. The 49ers, after a first round bye, looked dominant as they beat the Vikings at home 27–10. The Packers, who looked dominant at times, were able to dispatch Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks 28–23 to advance. Now this sets up a big battle for a trip to the Super Bowl. These teams met before this season, in San Francisco for a big game. That was a Monday Night Football battle, and it was pretty one-sided. The 49ers won 37–8, dominating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers threw for just over 100 yards and a TD on 20 completions. Aaron Jones was held to 38 yards and 2.9 yards per carry, and Davante Adams had just 43 yards on seven receptions. The 49ers, meanwhile, dominated without being flashy. They had five sacks, but pulled just one turnover. And they saw George Kittle go wild, accounting for more than 100 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Both teams say that Sunday will be different, and I suspect it will be. But after the way the 49ers were able to find a groove and take apart the Vikings last week, it’s fair to wonder if the Packers can close the gap enough to make a difference this time. I think Rodgers, Adams and Jones will be better, but I still think the 49ers are the better team.
The Pick: 49ers 27, Packers 17
About: The top two seeds in the NFC are in the Championship Game. The 49ers, after a first round bye, looked dominant as they beat the Vikings at home 27–10. The Packers, who looked dominant at times, were able to dispatch Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks 28–23 to advance. Now this sets up a big battle for a trip to the Super Bowl. These teams met before this season, in San Francisco for a big game. That was a Monday Night Football battle, and it was pretty one-sided. The 49ers won 37–8, dominating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers threw for just over 100 yards and a TD on 20 completions. Aaron Jones was held to 38 yards and 2.9 yards per carry, and Davante Adams had just 43 yards on seven receptions. The 49ers, meanwhile, dominated without being flashy. They had five sacks, but pulled just one turnover. And they saw George Kittle go wild, accounting for more than 100 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Both teams say that Sunday will be different, and I suspect it will be. But after the way the 49ers were able to find a groove and take apart the Vikings last week, it’s fair to wonder if the Packers can close the gap enough to make a difference this time. I think Rodgers, Adams and Jones will be better, but I still think the 49ers are the better team.
The Pick: 49ers 27, Packers 17
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