Fantasy Movie League: Weak Box Office Options


We’re at Super Bowl weekend, and it’s a time that’s often a little slower at the Box Office. With big December films still lingering, Academy Award winners going wider and a few appealing new options, it’s a hodgepodge at the Box Office and in the Cineplex. That means it’s all about hitting on value, but more on that in a minute.

Last week I also tried to make the value play, as I thought Dolittle would rebound from a terrible opening to produce against its cost. Instead, Bad Boys For Life was hot again, serving as the Best Value and the anchor for the Perfect Cineplex. As a result, I was $30 million off the pace. I blame my vacation for giving me false hope. But I’m back now, and hoping to get back in the groove in this game.

This week there are two new wide releases, neither of which figures to be atop the Box Office. So where does the value lie? That’s the question. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:
The biggest of the new releases is The Rhythm Section, the revenge tale starring Blake Lively. It also has a supporting cast that includes Jude Law and Sterling K. Brown, but that hasn’t helped it with critics. It boasts just a 44 percent, which isn’t great. The film is $152 FML Bucks, third most, and projected in third at $8 million. Box Office Pro sees fourth and $6 million, while Box Office Report sees fifth and $6.7 million. This one isn’t likely to produce good value. 
The other new wide release is Gretel and Hansel, a grim take on a Grimm’s Fairy Tale. It has no critical score, but let’s go ahead and assume it won’t be high. It’s $100 FML Bucks, sixth most, and projected at just $4.4 million. However, Box Office Pro sees $5.3 and Box Office Report sees $7.8 million. That could give it some value.

The Search for the Best Value:

The past two weeks Bad Boys For Life has topped the Box Office, and topped the value charts. It’s $383 FML Bucks in its third week in release, by far the most, and it’s projected atop the Box Office once again. Fantasy Movie League sees $19.8 million. Box Office Pro goes with $19 million and Box Office Report goes with $19.3 million. So the projections are tight, and at its price point it’s hard to see Bad Boys bringing you the win three weeks in a row.

A couple other interesting options are Dolittle and The Gentlemen. Both have under-performed, but both have higher projections from sites other than Fantasy Movie League. With an under-whelming Box Office, small margins will rule the day, so any advantage is welcome.

This Week’s Lineup:

Given the film, this feels wrong, but the potential value looks right… I’m betting on Gretel and Hansel.

1917 x2
Gretel and Hansel x6

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