Fantasy Movie League: Sonic has arrived


We’ve reached President’s Day Weekend, which coincides with Valentine’s Day tomorrow, making this a big weekend for Hollywood. And to celebrate, there are four new wide releases. But what will create the best value? We’ll explore that more in a minute.

First, let’s look back at last week. I thought Birds of Prey, or as it’s been re-named Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey, would be the best anchor. Instead, it massively under-performed. And I thought Jumanji: The Next Level would produce the best value. But I noted Dolittle could fill that role. Dolittle did fill that role, and those that paired it with Bad Boys For Life got more than $87 million. My Cineplex produced just over $60 million. So off a perfect week I fell flat on my face. Let’s hope this week does a wee bit better.

This week we’re looking at four-day totals, which adds a new wrinkle. And we have four new films, plus we’re past the Academy Awards so more of the focus is on 2020 films than looking to the past. With a holiday, especially a double holiday for some, it’s hard to tell where the value will come. But we have to improve over last week, so here I go. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest of the new films is Sonic the Hedgehog, which stars Jim Carrey and is based on the classic Sega game. It figures to easily top the Box Office, too. The film boasts a 70 percent critical score, but it’s probably the most family-friendly film released in a few weeks. The film is the most expensive at $645 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it in first with $38.6 million. HOWEVER, they are shockingly the lowest, by a lot. Box Office Pro sees $46 million and Box Office Report sees $56 million. So this could be a Best Value candidate if it hits high. There’s a risk, but I do think a lot of folks are curious to see it at least. 
The second film is The Photograph, which stars Issa Rae and LaKeith Stanfield, and is the traditional romance film. It makes sense for Valentine’s Day, but it’s hard to say if this will have an incredibly wide appeal. There is no critical score yet, but the film is $206 FML Bucks, third most, and is projected in third place with $16.2 million. Box Office Pro sees $16.2 million, also, while Box Office Report sees $19 million. Those all feel steady with the position in Fantasy Movie League.
Next up is Fantasy Island, which shares a name with a classic TV series but seems to aiming for something decidedly darker. The film has no critical score yet, but we can assume it will be middling and won’t matter to audiences. It has a solid ensemble, but the format is the star here. The film is fourth most in the game at $173 FML Bucks, aligning with the Fantasy Movie League slot, which projects $11.6 million. Box Office Pro is more bullish with $13.9 million, while Box Office Report sees $14.5 million. So this could make the film a value if it hits on the higher end.
The final new wide release is Downhill, the comedy paced by Julia Louis Dreyfuss and Will Ferrell. This one has a middling critical score of 49 percent, and it is just $48 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League projects it at just $4.5 million, while Box Office Report goes with $5 million. Box Office Pro didn’t forecast the film in the Top 10, meaning they believe it to grab less than $3.2 million. That makes the film a risk. Ferrell and Dreyfuss are bigger names, but this film is really running under the radar.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week the big Box Office story was Birds of Prey, which was projected near $50 million for its opening weekend and flopped to the tune of just $33 million. That made it the worst bang for the buck in the game last week. And the film has since changed its name, and is hoping positive word-of-mouth helps in Week 2. It’s still the second most expensive at $218 FML Bucks, and projected at $20.8 million. Box Office Pro sees $20.5 million, but Box Office Pro sees a further slide to $15.6 million. Given last weekend and how this is tracking, I think this film remains a stay away.

On the other end, Bad Boys For Life keeps on trucking. At $143 FML Bucks, it’s fifth most in the game and Fantasy Movie League projects $9.8 million. But Box Office Pro goes with $10.9 million while Box Office Report goes with $12 million. The film seems to keep having legs, giving it some solid value. 

This Week’s Lineup:

With nothing standing out a ton, it feels like Sonic is still the right anchor.

Sonic the Hedgehog
Downhill x7

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