Player Profile: Darrell Henderson

After the 2019 draft, Darrell Henderson was a trendy pick. In fact, by the time many rookie drafts got going, his value was pushing up into the first round. It wasn’t just his talent that got people’s attention, but the fact he seemed to be coming in to take over for Todd Gurley.

The thing is, rumors of Gurley’s demise proved premature. The Rams’ star played in and started 15 games. And the hope that Henderson was going to at least carry the load never materialized. The Rams’ offense was uneven, and many who spent high draft capital had little to show for it in 2019.

But Gurley moved on in the off-season, signing with the Atlanta Falcons. So is 2020 the year of Henderson? Let’s weigh the evidence.

Early Optimism

Henderson was taken in the third round of the 2019 draft after playing his college ball at Memphis. In three seasons, he rushed for 3,545 yards and 36 TDs. That included a stout junior year, where he rushed for 1,909 yards and 22 TDs. His potential and college production combined with his draft position was only part of what had fantasy players drooling.

The other part was Gurley. Gurley entered 2018 as the near universal top pick in Dynasty Drafts, and he had a good season. The Rams made the Super Bowl, and Gurley looked like an MVP at times, rushing for 1,251 yards and 17 TDs. He also added 59 receptions for 580 yards and four TDs. But Gurley played only 14 games, missing the final two for the Rams. He also didn’t look like himself in the playoffs, or the Super Bowl, and slowly it emerged he had an issue with his knee. The speculation was he’d struggle to stay on the field in 2019, and likely would share the load with Henderson. But it didn’t happen.

Gurley played in 15 games, carrying the ball 223 times. But he wasn’t as successful, averaging less than four yards per carry as he rushed for 857 yards and 12 TDs. But when he did share the load, it wasn’t Henderson but Malcolm Brown who hit the field. Brown rushed 69 times for 255 yards and five TDs, and was the spot starter during the game Gurley missed. Henderson, meanwhile, carried just 39 times for 147 yards and caught four passes for 37 yards in 13 games he was active for the Rams. For a player that was often taken in the first round of Rookie Drafts, that was a blow.

Breaking Out in 2020?

Gurley is now in Atlanta, so the question is whether it’s now Henderson’s time to shine. Brown is still there, but it’s another running back who seems to be blocking Henderson’s way. In the 2020 draft the Rams snagged Florida State running back Cam Akers, taking him in the second round a full 18 spots earlier than Henderson was snagged in 2019. And Akers is a promising prospect, having rushed for 2,875 yards and 27 TDs in three seasons for the Seminoles. That included a junior season where he rushed for 1,144 yards and 14 TDs.

So the question is who leads the Rams’ backfield? It’s likely both will have a role, and possibly even all three when you consider Brown. But Akers’ draft position coupled with Henderson’s limited role in 2019 has cooled enthusiasm for the second-year back. In fact, it feels like no player’s value has had more peaks and valleys in the last 12 months than Henderson. So when taking a chance on a Rams’ back, it is worth considering the draft capital you have to spend. And that’s where there remains a big gulf between Akers and Henderson. Akers is currently going as RB27 in PPR and RB32 in Standard, while Henderson is more of a value at RB43 in PPR and RB41 in Standard. If, as many suspect, the load is split, the vast difference in draft position will provide increased value for Henderson.

The Bottom Line

So is it worth it to swing for Henderson? ESPN currently projects Akers to be the Rams’ leader in carries and yardage, with 167 for 695 and seven TDs. But Henderson isn’t far off at 136 carries for 558 yards and four TDs, and the projections predict him to be the better receiver. In short, that could make them about even from a fantasy perspective, with Henderson coming at a significant draft discount. And the reality is this isn’t a normal off-season. The amount of times rookies get with their clubs and preparing has already been trimmed, and with talk of a shortened pre-season, Akers could see his shot at reps reduced, too. That would give Henderson and Brown, as veterans, an edge, especially early in the season.

It’s foolish to think the Rams spent a second round pick — one they got by trading receiver Brandin Cooks — on a player they won’t use. Akers will be involved, but it doesn’t mean Henderson won’t be involved. This time last year he was the rookie running back for the Rams with a lot of hype, and I think there’s still a chance he leads the Rams in carries and rushing in 2020. All things being equal, I’ll take the player I can get as an RB4 and hope I get lucky.