Player Profile: Tampa Bay Tight Ends

This has been a weird off-season. First, Tom Brady actually left New England, signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then, in April just before the draft, Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement and was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Suddenly, the fantasy world caught fire.

Previous to the Gronk trade, some had believed O.J. Howard was due for a big 2020 thanks to the arrival of Brady. Following the trade, it seemed Gronk was a hot commodity in trades, drafts and waiver wire transactions. The question is, will Gronk, Howard or neither be a viable option in 2020? Let’s weigh the evidence!

The Case for Gronk

This one’s pretty easy, we’ve seen it before. Prior to his one-year retirement, Gronk was one of the best and most explosive tight ends in the game, all coming alongside Brady in New England. He played nine years alongside Brady, amassing 521 receptions, 7,861 yards and 79 touchdowns. That included four times where he got more than 100 targets. It seemed the biggest drawback for Gronk in New England was injury history, which caused him to miss a number of games. In nine seasons he played 16 games only twice, his first two years, and 15 games in two other seasons, while he also had two seasons with less than 10 games played.

In his final season with the Patriots, Gronk seemed to be struggling physically, years of physical play taking a toll on him. He played in 13 games, starting 11, with 47 receptions for 682 yards and three touchdowns. While those were low marks for Gronk, he was still a force on the field when needed. He added 13 receptions for 191 yards in the playoffs as the Patriots won the Super Bowl, again. Then he walked away.

But that might end up being a good thing for 2020. Gronk had a year to rest, heal and rejuvenate, something he seemed to really need by the end of the 2018 season. And though he’s coming back for year 10 after a year away, he’s only 31 years old. Better yet, he has a built in relationship with Brady, on and off the field, which should give him a bit of an edge. In an off-season where Brady is changing teams and will have limited time working with his new teammates, that could be a critical factor. But it’s also one you’re paying a high price for as Gronk’s ADP is very high. He’s currently going as TE8 in PPR and Standard, meaning you have to pay up to draft him and hope he’s the Gronk of old.

The Case for Howard

This one is less clear. Howard at times has drawn comparisons to Gronk, but not really for what we’ve seen on the field. He’s seemed to be a perennial break out candidate during the past couple seasons, but he’s yet to return that kind of value on the field for his team. He’s been in the league three years, and he’s yet to crack 35 receptions in a season. As a rookie he had 26 receptions for 432 yards and six TDs. And it was probably the TD numbers in particularly that gave fans hope. In his second year, he was limited to 10 games, but caught 34 for 565 yards and five TDs. But last year, he didn’t make any forward progress. And while the narrative seemed to be that he was in the coach’s doghouse and a forgotten man, he actually had a career-high 53 targets. And yet, he caught just 34 passes for 459 yards and a touchdown.

What was more frustrating is that Howard finished the season behind teammate Cameron Brate, who had 36 receptions for 311 yards and four TDs. And Brate is still there, as is Gronk. So aside from feeling like his age and talent suggests he’s due, it’s tough to see his clear path to dominance. However, he is a better discount in drafts. Howard is currently going as TE25 in PPR and TE18 in Standard, which means you can get him late in drafts, when you already have another starter, and see if he ends up rising to the top of the heap.

The Challenges for Both

The challenges here start with competition. In addition to each other, Gronk and Howard share the tight end room with Brate. While both are likely more talented, it comes down to snaps and opportunity, and simply having another player who could take away both is an impediment. In addition, the Buccaneers have two exceptional receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, weapons that took preference over Howard and Brate last year and they are easily the best pair of receivers Brady has played with. In addition, the Buccaneers have Ronald Jones, Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the backfield, and Brady has historically boosted the value of pass-catching running backs.

The other question is how much work there will be to go around. Last year, the Buccaneers struggled defensively and with turnovers, which helped fuel Jameis Winston throwing the ball 626 times for more than 5,000 yards and 33 TDs. Brady, meanwhile, threw the ball 613 times in 2019 in New England, seemingly largely as a result of a minimal running game. That was his most pass attempts in four seasons. The Buccaneers have worked on improving their defense, are hoping to improve their running game and will likely enjoy better ball security with Brady. That could well lead to fewer pass attempts, which again creates more competition for targets in a suddenly crowded Buccaneers landscape.

The Bottom Line

Gronk has name recognition, especially paired with Brady. I get the appeal. But you have to reach to get him, and we really don’t know what he’ll look like after a year away in a new system. We also don’t know how he’ll fare with better competition. And, finally, what seems likely is that they will save Gronk for a playoff run, meaning reducing snaps during the early and middle portion of the regular season. And yet, you have to pay Top 10 TE prices to get your share.

For Howard, there isn’t a clear path to targets, nor is their a clear role for him at his own position group. He might be talented, but he has yet to move past 34 receptions, and his touchdowns have been inconsistent at best. Regardless of their snap share, Gronk figures to be more of a goal line threat. I don’t mine snatching Howard late in dynasty drafts as a prospect, or even getting him at the end of re-draft leagues as a possible stash. But if you’re trying to rely on a Tampa Bay tight end for premium production in 2020, I’m not taking that risk.