Player Profile: Justin Jackson

For those that regularly follow me in this space, you know I went off the books with my pre-season prediction for Fantasy MVP in 2019. With Melvin Gordon looking to potentially hold out all season, I thought Justin Jackson was a steal, and would be a league winner. I still believe in the talent, but that call didn’t work out great.

Jackson didn’t get a ton of touches early in the season, then missed a chunk of the year with injury. Meanwhile Gordon returned after a few weeks and quickly claimed his spot alongside Austin Ekeler in leading the Chargers’ backfield. But now Gordon is gone to Denver, and I’m returning to Jackson. Can he flourish this year for the Chargers? Let’s consider the evidence.

A Talented Addition

Jackson was taken in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft, and showed some flashes in his rookie year. He only got 50 carries, but turned that into 206 yards and two TDs, catching 15 passes for 135 yards. Jackson was a four-year starter for Northwestern, where he finished his career with 5,440 yards and 41 TDs. In addition, he was an adept receiver who caught 35 passes as a junior and 44 passes as a senior. He seemed an ideal fit for what the Chargers might want to do on offense.

And with Ekeler taking the lead Week 1 and Week 2, Jackson looked good in his limited opportunities. He turned six carries into 57 yards in Week 1 against the Colts and added 59 yards on seven carries Week 2 against the Lions. But his Week 3 effort was cut short, and he was soon out of the mix due to injury. Gordon missed the first four games for the Chargers, but then returned. And he quickly resumed his position, taking 162 carries for 612 yards and eight TDs, catching 42 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown. Ekeler, meanwhile, proved a capable co-lead, taking 132 carries for 557 yards and three TDs. He also caught 92 passes for 993 yards and eight TDs.

When Jackson returned to action in November and December, he found himself the odd man out. He appeared in just seven games, with the final four coming late in the season where he had 11 carries for 58 yards over those last four appearances. He also caught three passes for three yards in those appearances. He finished his second season with 200 yards on 29 carries and nine receptions for 29 yards. Hardly the breakout I’d hoped. But there’s reason for optimism in 2020, yet again.

An Opening in Los Angeles

During the off-season, Gordon left town and signed with Denver. The Chargers, meanwhile, gave Ekeler a four-year, $24.5 million deal. He figures to be the top option in the backfield, but as last year proved he can be quite effective while allowing space for another back to flourish. And that opens the door, once again, for Jackson to step up into an expanded role. But this off-season didn’t come without competition.

In April’s draft, the Chargers added to their running back group. The team spent a fourth round pick on UCLA back Joshua Kelley, who figures to be the primary competition for the 1B slot in the Chargers’ rotation. In two years with UCLA, Kelley rushed for 2,303 yards and 24 TDs. He wasn’t as much of a receiving weapon, catching 27 passes for 193 yards in 2018 but just 11 for 71 yards in 2019. Still, Kelley figures to provide competition for Jackson in his path toward a meaningful role, which is part of what has tempered optimism for his potential breakout.

The Bottom Line

Jackson has talent and has an opportunity. All the reasons I felt he was primed to step up in 2019 apply in 2020, but can he do it? The question is whether you want to bet on the Chargers. Their offense may take a step back in efficiency with a combination of Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert at quarterback, but they figure to still need to run the ball. While Ekeler might get some additional carries as the lead back, it makes sense to split the workload, and Gordon leaves behind 162 carries from 2019 to be re-distributed. When Jackson was paired with Ekeler the first two weeks in 2019, he made the most of his opportunities, rushing for 116 yards on just 16 carries.

He’s also not an expensive risk. While Jackson is going higher in 2020 than he was at points in the off-season in 2019, he’s still a relative bargain if he can return value close to what Gordon provided in 2019. He is currently being drafted as RB52 in PPR and RB51 in Standard. I like his talent and potential opportunity, and to be able to grab a possible low-end RB2 around pick 160 sounds like a steal to me. Maybe I was just a year too early on Jackson, but either way I’m going back for more this year!