Player Profile: Sam Darnold

Heading into the 2019 season, there was some optimism around the New York Jets. The team had a strong off-season, including bringing in Pro Bowl running back Le’Veon Bell, and it seemed like there was a chance to make a playoff push. A lot of that also centered on expecting quarterback Sam Darnold to take a step forward in his second year under new head coach Adam Gase.

It didn’t really happen. Between getting Mono, seeing Ghosts and generally struggling to find any sort of rhythm, the Jets fell out of contention quickly. Quietly, the Jets went 6–2 in the back half of the season, including seeing Darnold go 7–6 as a starter and improve his stats. So should that finish provide some optimism moving to year three? Let’s consider the evidence.

Small Growth

Darnold was taken in the first round of the 2018 draft, at No. 3, and expected to be the franchise quarterback for the Jets. In his rookie season, he came out on fire in the opener and got a win in Detroit. But it wasn’t a sign of things to come. Darnold suffered an injury in the middle of the season, limiting him to 13 starts as a rookie. In those starts he went 4–9, finishing with 2,865 yards, 17 TDs and 15 INTS. In 2019, Darnold was again limited to just 13 starts. He opened the season, but soon missed three games with Mono. And even when he returned, it was slow going at first. But Darnold was the starter for the 6–2 second half of the season, and went 7–6 as a starter. He also improved in yardage (3,024 yards) and touchdowns (19 TDs) while throwing only 13 INTs. He did have 11 fumbles, which didn’t help, but the Jets’ offensive line play was a struggle at times as well.

Still, the hot final stretch is encouraging for Jets fans and Darnold fans, especially providing he can take a step forward — and stay on the field — in 2020. And the Jets have done some work to help that. This off-season they have worked on protecting Darnold. In free agency, the Jets got tackle George Fant from the Seahawks, center Conner McGovern from the Broncos and guard Greg Van Roten from the Panthers. The Jets also used their first round pick to snag tackle Mekhi Becton, giving them a chance to radically re-make their offensive line.

The team also added some new weapons for Darnold and his coach, Adam Gase. After adding Bell last off-season, the team added veteran Frank Gore and rookie La’Mical Perine to round out their running back group. Bell ran for 789 yards and three TDs in 2019, but only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. The line improvement should help that, too. But Bell did snag 66 receptions for 461 yards, and is still the dynamic duel threat he was in Pittsburgh.

There has also been a lot of turnover in the receiver group, too. Veteran Demaryius Thomas is gone, and Robby Anderson left for Carolina. In their place, the Jets brought in veteran Breshad Perriman, who spent 2019 in Tampa Bay. With the Bucs, Perriman saw 36 receptions for 645 yards and six TDs on 69 targets, and was a weapon as the third receiver and spot starter. The Jets are hoping he can do the same for them and Darnold. They also drafted Denzel Mims from Baylor in the second round. Mims was a strong three-year starter at Baylor, catching 61 for 1,087 and eight TDs as a sophomore and 55 for 794 and eight TDs as a junior. As a senior, Mims caught 66 for 1,020 and 12 TDs.

Mims and Perriman figure to be weapons along the Jets top receiver, Jamison Crowder. He caught 78 passes for 833 yards and six TDs on a team-high 129 targets. And Darnold also figures to have tight end Chris Herndon, who missed most of 2019 due to suspension and injury. They also return tight end Ryan Griffin, who filled in well in starting 13 games and grabbing 34 receptions for 320 yards and five TDs. So Darnold will potentially have a better line, new weapons and, for the first time in his career, isn’t learning a new system this off-season. That sounds like a recipe for someone being able to take a step forward. But will he? That’s the gamble.

The Bottom Line

Darnold was viewed as a talented prospect, and we’ve seen it at times in his first two years. In what was a season that didn’t seem to go well in 2019, Darnold finished with a winning record as a starter, threw for more yardage, had a better completion percentage and threw more TDs with fewer INTs. And the Jets spent the off-season building around him while not adding any competition at the position — a sign that they believe he can be their franchise quarterback. If you’re in a single quarterback league, Darnold still probably isn’t on your radar as anything more than a potential backup. But with the rise of Superflex and 2QB leagues, and for those in Dynasty, Darnold should hold some appeal.

And he’s not expensive to acquire. Darnold is currently going as QB22 in drafts, and has been available around pick 171. That makes him a low-end QB2, meaning you can take a young player with upside if you’re one who waits on QBs. He finished as QB27 last year, so this would be a modest step forward that I think is in line with his potential and situation. It’s a risk, sure, but I think the Jets are building around Darnold, and with Tom Brady no longer in the AFC East, I’d expect the other teams in the division to have a new sense of competition. That, too, could bolster Darnold’s 2020 experience, and that’s another part of why I’m buying him at his price.