Academy Award Predictions


 

The Academy Awards take place, finally, tonight at 8 p.m. EST. Below are my predictions for tonight's awards. These are simply picks for who I think WILL win.

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: I'm going with Nomadland. It's the front-runner, and I think it will win. Possible spoilers are Minari and Promising Young Woman.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

Will Win: This award is going to Chadwick Boseman.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Will Win: This is going to Daniel Kaluuya.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Will Win: This is perhaps the most open race, but I'm going with Carey Mulligan.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Will Win: There are a couple strong contenders, but I'm going with Yuh-Jung Youn.

DIRECTING
Another Round
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman

Will Win: There are some good options in this category, but I'm going with Chloe Zhao for Nomadland.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Will Win: I'm going with Soul here, which is the film in this group I thought was the best.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: This is a tough category, but I'm going with Nomadland here.

COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

Will Win: This is one of the tougher ones for me to handicap. A film like Mank could pick up an award here, or a film like Emma and Mulan. BUT, I'm going with Ma Rainey's Black Bottom here.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

Will Win: I've noted this isn't my favorite group. There are a few contenders here, but I'm sticking with Collective winning. 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha

Will Win: Some interesting and powerful films in this group. I'm going with A Love Song for Latasha.

FILM EDITING
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: This one could have a big bearing on Best Picture. There are a lot of beautifully edited films. I'm going with Nomadland. 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?

Will Win: This is a diverse and powerful group of films. Quo Vadis, Aida? could be the spoiler here, but I'm going with Another Round.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Will Win: Another interesting set of nominees that feels pretty wide open. I'm going with Ma Rainey's Black Bottom here.

ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Will Win: I think this one is going to Soul.

ORIGINAL SONG
"Fight For You," Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice," The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik," Eurovision Song Contest
"Io Sì (Seen)," The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
"Speak Now," One Night In Miami... 

Will Win: There are a couple that could score here, but I'm going with "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami.

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet

Will Win: Another technical category with some strong contenders. I'm going with Mank for this one.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People

Will Win: This is an easy pick for me. I'm going with the the emotionally powerful If Anything Happens I Love You.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye

Will Win: There are some powerful entries here. A number of films could win, but I'm going with my heart and picking Feeling Through.

SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

Will Win: The sound award has to go to Sound of Metal.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

Will Win: I get the arguments, but C'mon. This one is going to Tenet.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami...
The White Tiger
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Will Win: Some great scripts here. I think this goes to The Father, and Florian Zeller.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: Another good group, but I'm going with Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman.

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