NFL Divisional Round Picks

 


The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend offered six games and plenty of surprises. I was certainly off my game, going just 2-4 over the initial weekend. Let’s see if I can rebound a bit with my picks for the Divisional Round.

Saturday Games:

Houston Texans (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
About: These two teams actually met during the regular season. You might have forgotten because it was during kickoff weekend. It’s fair to say the Texans are a much different team now. So, there’s not a lot to glean from that early 25-9 loss. The Ravens were the best and most consistent team in the AFC throughout the season. Lamar Jackson could well be the NFL’s Regular Season MVP, and it would be deserved. The Ravens handled all challenges and got the No. 1 seed and a bye week. But they also sat starters during Week 18. That means it will have been three weeks since they last played a meaningful game. We’ve seen this go poorly before. In 2020, the Ravens finished 14-2 as the No. 1 seed. They sat starters the final week of the regular season and were ill-prepared for the 9-7 Tennessee Titans, who won 28-12. Surely John Harbaugh and Jackson remember that and will be more ready. But the Texans have been an exceptional and impressive team all season, especially with C.J. Stroud in the lineup. The Texans also have some history on their side as previous teams in this position have gone from bottom of the heap to Super Bowl participants. Most recently, it was the Cincinnati Bengals, who made a run in 2021. So, can Stroud be the next young quarterback to lead a team on a Cinderella run?
The Pick: The Texans. Smart money is probably on the Ravens, but the Texans have made me a believer.

Green Bay Packers (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
About: The Packers are the NFL’s youngest team, and they made the biggest statement during Wild Card Weekend. The Packers came out and hit the Cowboys in the mouth, running up a 27-0 lead in the first half. The Packers became the first No. 7 seed since the playoffs changed to win and advance. Their prize is the No. 1 overall seed, the 49ers. And it’s hard to imagine the 49ers will let the Packers jump out to the same kind of lead. The 49ers, like the Ravens, were the best team in their conference throughout the season. The team struggled with a three-game losing streak in the middle of the season, and didn’t show up Christmas Day against the Ravens, but otherwise fended off all challengers. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk provide a great group of weapons for Brock Purdy. And the 49ers’ defense has been stout once again. They will be ready to make a run this season, hoping to go back to the Super Bowl. But Jordan Love has had an impressive season, too. Matt LaFleur bet on Love and a young Packers’ team and after some early bumps in the road, it looks like a good bet. This should be a fun, competitive game.
The Pick: The 49ers. I think the 49ers’ loaded roster will get the team into the NFC Championship Game once again.

Sunday Games:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) at Detroit Lions (12-5)
About: The Buccaneers squeaked into the playoffs, struggling a bit to end the season with a loss to the Saints and a 9-0 win over the Panthers. But they looked well-prepared for the first playoff game, getting the best of the Eagles and cruising to a 32-9 victory. Baker Mayfield has been playing well and is looking to take this veteran team on a run. The Lions, meanwhile, played the closest game of the Wild Card Round. Facing former quarterback Matthew Stafford and a good Rams team, the Lions scored three first half touchdowns but managed just three points in the second half, pulling out the 24-23 win. It was the Lions’ first playoff win in more than 30 years. The atmosphere figures to be electric again on Sunday. Can Jared Goff and a good Lions team get another home win and make a move to the NFC Championship Game? This figures to be a fun battle between two upstart teams.
The Pick: The Lions. I believe in Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, and this being their time to shine.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
About: We’ve seen these two AFC powers meet in the playoffs before. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes squared off in the playoffs in 2021 and in 2022, both games going to the Chiefs in Arrowhead. This team, the battle is in Buffalo. The Bills got the game in Buffalo thanks to a 20-17 win in Kansas City during the season, a part of a five-game win streak the Bills had to end the season, win the AFC East and earn the No. 2 overall seed. The Chiefs took care of the Dolphins at home in the Wild Card Round and will now go on the road in the AFC Playoffs—the first time that’s happened with Mahomes at quarterback. The Bills, meanwhile, finished as the NFL’s hottest team, carrying that five-game win streak into the playoffs and earning the 31-15 win over the Steelers on Monday. Is it finally time for the Bills to conquer the Chiefs in the playoffs or will Mahomes earn his third post-season win over Allen despite the change of venue. This is my most anticipated game of the Divisional Round.
The Pick: The Bills. It’s Buffalo’s time, I can feel it.

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