Super Wildcard Weekend Picks

 


The NFL’s Regular Season is over and now it’s time for the playoffs. That kicks off with the Super Wild Card Weekend—six games over three fun-filled days. Below are my previews of the games and my picks. It’s my quest to have a perfect post-season. Will I get it? Let’s find out.

First, a primer on my regular season picks. In straight up picks, I finished 9-7 in Week 18, going 173-99 for the season. In picks against the spread, I finished 9-7 in Week 18 as well. It was my third straight week going 9-7, helping me end above .500 at 139-133. Now, on to the playoff picks.

Saturday Games:

Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Houston Texans (10-7)
About: This is a fascinating matchup and the battle of the two AFC teams that were the biggest surprises. If you read my Award Picks column, you know that the Browns’ Kevin Stefanski and the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans were the two top picks for me for Coach of the Year. The Browns overcame the loss of Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson to make the playoffs as the No. 5 seed. The Texans went from worst to first, surprisingly winning the AFC South after the Jaguars’ collapse. These teams played late in the season; a Week 16 game that saw the Browns win 36-22. But it came during the stretch C.J. Stroud missed due to a concussion, so it’s fair to say this matchup will be different. These are two hot teams with a lot on the line. The Browns held out their starters in Week 18, which could provide some rust. Can the Texans take advantage and get the home win? This is a great way to kick off the playoffs.
The Pick: The Browns. I think Cleveland’s storybook season continues.

Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
About: This is a tale of two teams. The Dolphins were red-hot to start the season but struggled against winning teams. The only playoff team the Dolphins beat was the Cowboys, and that came down to the last minute. Meanwhile the Chiefs struggled throughout the season but did just enough to win the AFC West. Now, they’re at home and facing a familiar foe in former wide receiver Tyreek Hill. It’s also an interesting battle as the Chiefs’ defense has been stout while its offense has struggled. The Dolphins’ offense has been explosive, but the defense is riddled with injuries. It’s also supposed to be brutally cold, which won’t likely favor a team from Miami. So, what to make of this game? The Chiefs also played the Dolphins earlier this season in Germany, getting a 21-14 win. At the time, Kansas City moved to 7-2. The team finished 3-4. Neither team comes in on a hot streak. The Chiefs have more playoff experience as well.
The Pick: The Dolphins. Normally this would be Kansas City, but I just have a feeling the Dolphins are ready to rise to the occasion.

Sunday Games:

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
About: This is the two hottest teams right now in the AFC, with the Bills winning five straight to capture the AFC East title and the Steelers winning their final three games to get in. With Mason Rudolph, it’s been strong defense, a few big plays in the passing game, and leaning on the running game for the Steelers. That same formula has been a big part of the Bills’ resurgence as well. The Bills have plenty of recent playoff experience, but not always a lot of success. Mike Tomlin, meanwhile, has never had a losing season but hasn’t always had a lot of playoff success, either. These teams didn’t match up in the regular season, but I’m expecting a close, low-scoring game.
The Pick: The Bills. I think they get the win at home.

Green Bay Packers (9-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
About: This game features Cowboys’ coach Mike McCarthy against his former team, which is intriguing. The Packers also had a great closing stretch to make the post-season. After starting 2-5, the Packers went 7-3 to sneak in. The Cowboys, meanwhile, had a unique season. The team put up some huge, lopsided wins against lesser opponents but struggled against playoff teams. But the Cowboys’ wins over the Eagles and Lions, coupled with the Eagles’ late-season collapse, got them to the No. 2 seed. Dallas has been a much better home team this season and they could well be at home until the NFC Championship Game. These teams didn’t play during the regular season, but Dallas’ big offense and stout defense will present a challenge to a young Green Bay team.
The Pick: The Cowboys. Can Dallas get to a Super Bowl? I’m not sure. But I think they win here at home for sure.

Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Detroit Lions (12-5)
About: It feels strange that when the Lions finally make it back to the post-season, they have to face Matthew Stafford. Even at home, this could be a challenge. Stafford and the Rams’ offense, led by Kyren Williams, Puca Nacua and Cooper Kupp, really got going in the second half of the year. The Rams were a steady producer and will be a dangerous playoff team despite being the No. 6 seed. The Lions are a dangerous team, too. Had things broken differently in Dallas in Week 17, they might have been at home against Green Bay instead. But now, Jared Goff gets to face his former team, this time as the higher seed. I love the offenses here, which means this game will likely come down to which team’s defense can make more plays. This could be one of the most fun games of the weekend.
The Pick: The Lions. I’m going with the home team here, but this should be a close battle.

Monday Game:

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
About: This is an interesting way to end the first round of the playoffs. The Eagles essentially backed in, losing five of six games. That slide cost them the No. 1 seed, the NFC East Title, and a home game. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, started hot, faded, fought their way back, then survived a war of attrition to win the NFC South. The Buccaneers lost a crucial Week 17 game to the Saints and scored only nine points in a must win Week 18 victory over the two-win Panthers. They are the home team, but they aren’t the better team. The question is if the Eagles can figure out their issues. The Eagles’ defense has been a mess and the offense hasn’t been good enough to cover it. The Buccaneers’ defense, meanwhile, has been steady, while the offense has been up-and-down with Baker Mayfield. Some might be tempted to see this as an easy call, but this could well be a close game.
The Pick: The Eagles. Ultimately, I think the Eagles will live to fight another day.

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